Oh boy, there’s that Oscar season lull. All the movies have come out, most of the awards shows have had their say and there’s still a month to go.
In other news, I got a job this week! So I haven’t had much time to catch up on Oscar stuff this week anyway, but thankfully the conversation has turned elsewhere.
Adele to perform at the Oscars
Yes! Justice is served! The Oscars will be interesting to watch again! The Academy announced quite literally this morning through Facebook that Adele will in fact perform the Oscar nominated theme song from “Skyfall” on the Oscar telecast.
What was not specified was whether this would be part of a collection of all the Original nominated songs being performed or will be part of the 50th Anniversary Tribute to James Bond.
We’ve now had a week to digest the Oscar nominees, and although there are another five weeks to go (feels so far away!) people have already analyzed the nominations to death.
Everyone’s had words about Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck, and just as many have talked about how many records “Amour” seems to be setting, either as having the oldest nominee (but not the oldest living nominee), the lowest box office receipt, the chance to win multiple Oscars for Michael Haneke or its position as one of few Palme D’Or winners to get the Best Picture nod.
But that’s what I’m in this for. Not every statistic is going to be groundbreaking, but better that we have a hectic year than a boring one.
There have been a lot of fun articles and news in the past week consequently (read my own analysis of the race the morning of the nominations), and there have also been plenty of predictions. Time then I jumped back into the fray.
Critics’ Choice Awards and Golden Globes
“I’d like to thank the Academy,” said Ben Affleck after winning Best Director and Best Picture for “Argo” at the Critics’ Choice Awards the night of the Oscar nominations. The film’s strength in both award shows demonstrates just how strong “Argo” may be after all in the Oscar race. It would’ve been a different narrative if either show aired before the nominations, but this is a strange year.
And now we can only hope that the Oscar broadcast will not be as bad as the Critics’ Choice or that it will be as good as the Globes.
The Critics’ Choice Awards took a lot of heat for refusing to air Tony Kushner’s acceptance speech and needling the winners with negative reviews of their past work. In Anne Hathaway’s case, the quote that was aired about her work in “The Princess Diaries” spelled Hathaway’s name wrong, which she promptly bit back at.
The Globes on the other hand managed to even surpass Ricky Gervais’s controversial appearance. Tina Fey and Amy Poehler were on fire all evening, bringing drinks on stage and making fun of Lena Dunham when she won the Best Actress prize they were both nominated for (“I’m glad I got you through middle school”). Most of the acceptance speeches were charming as hell, and then there was the matter of Jodie Foster’s eye-popping confessional as she accepted the Cecil B. DeMille Lifetime Achievement Award. More on that right now. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: Week 1 Post Oscar Nominations”
Last year when the Oscar nominations were announced, I couldn’t stop myself from yelling at the TV when “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” got nominated for Best Picture.
This year, there were a lot of snubs and a lot of surprises, but I held my tongue.
That’s because last year, I was more or less certain going in that not only would “The Artist” be nominated, it would probably win. The news was what else would share its spotlight in history, not the actual awards.
2012 is different. I didn’t know for sure what would be nominated, and noting how many predictions I got wrong, I can safely say I still don’t know what might win. In ANY category. We still have a real race on our hands.
No, we didn’t see a real surprise nominee like “Skyfall,” “The Master” or something completely out of left field like “The Intouchables” or “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” to round out a top 10, but you tell me who’s going to win Best Picture.
“Lincoln” got 12 nominations, which is a lot. That’s as many as “Ben-Hur” got. But is the movie so universally loved that it can make a clean sweep? It’s hardly Spielberg’s best movie, even if it is his best in a decade, but some people have viewed it as homework.
I have more questions about “Life of Pi’s” chances. “Life of Pi” got 11 nominations, none of them from acting, but it did get a surprise Adapted Screenplay nod and Best Director nod. “Life of Pi” did well at the box office, but how big was this movie’s Oscar campaign? Not as big as “Silver Linings Playbook,” and certainly not as big as “Lincoln.” This movie is practically under the radar, a movie that was probably in the five or six slot for nomination is now looking like the front runner.
As early as yesterday, I would’ve said “Argo” or “Zero Dark Thirty” would be the front runners to win. “Argo” is the most well-liked movie of the year. Very few people have a bad word to say about it, and just about everyone has seen it, both of which are things that none of the other nominees can claim. “Zero Dark Thirty” has a lot of controversy behind it, but it is by far the critical darling of the year. Now however, neither Ben Affleck nor former winner Kathryn Bigelow have been nominated for Best Director. Movies have won Best Picture without winning Best Director before, but only three times in the 85 year history has a movie won Best Picture without even being nominated, those being in 1927, 1931 and 1989 when “Driving Miss Daisy” had a surprise victory.
“Silver Linings” isn’t that weak either. With Jacki Weaver getting in, it’s the first movie since “Reds” to be nominated in every acting category. That gives it eight nominations, which is nothing to scoff at.
Could “Amour” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” pull off a surprise win? Michael Haneke was on a short list for possible director nominees, but almost no one had first-timer Benh Zeitlin on their lists. Both movies are riding the waves of having the youngest and oldest Best Actress nominees of all time in Quvenzhane Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva.
Even “Django Unchained” doesn’t look too weak. I predicted it would get seven nominations, but it’s got five, and Christoph Waltz taking Leo’s or even Javier Bardem’s spot says something.
That’s already a lot to mull over, but can you honestly make a prediction in any of the other races?
Daniel Day-Lewis seems perfectly plausible to win Best Actor. He’s playing Abraham Lincoln for God sakes. But he would be making history as the only actor to have won three Oscars. Are we prepared to call Daniel Day-Lewis the BEST actor of all time if he wins? Perhaps Joaquin Phoenix is stronger than we think, or maybe “Silver Linings” can ride an acting wave for an Oscar for Bradley Cooper.
Best Actress? Who knows. Jennifer Lawrence is the real movie star of the bunch, but Wallis can light up a room, Jessica Chastain is being called a female powerhouse in “Zero Dark Thirty,” Riva has the support of an older branch who remembers her in French New Wave classics, and Naomi Watts has the British voting block in her largely tearjerker of a movie.
Maybe Robert De Niro will end up being the three time Oscar winner, not Day-Lewis. But consider that everyone else in the Best Supporting category has already won. That’s just unprecedented.
The only conceivable prediction thus far is Anne Hathaway in “Les Miserables.” She steals the show in her three minute song, and there’s no telling that she’s one of the biggest movie stars right now who arguably deserves one. But just how good are Sally Field, Helen Hunt and Amy Adams in their movies? This is not a weak category, as I previously assumed.
No, I’m not quite ready to make any prediction. And that’s a good thing. For years the Academy has been trying desperately to get more people to actually watch the Oscars, be it through trendy hosts, more Best Picture nominees, an earlier schedule and a different presentation format. But now the Oscars have added one element that the show hasn’t had in years: surprise.
Correction: In a previous version, it was incorrectly stated that “Lincoln” received the most nominations of all time, tied with “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “LOTR: The Return of the King.” In actuality, 14 nominations is the record held by “All About Eve” and “Titanic.” The record for most wins is 11.
What an Oscar race it’s been. I simply don’t know what’s going to happen Thursday morning when nominations are finally announced for the Academy Awards on February 24th. It’s because there have been more great movies, less time to see them and even greater shakeups in the form of controversy, voting problems, new rules and a field that simply refuses to reveal a frontrunner.
In my past On the Red Carpet columns, I’ve made predictions each week, and that list has almost never stayed consistent. These then are my final predictions, when all the buzz that’s come and gone doesn’t matter except for right now.
I’d like to think I’ve studied the tea leaves enough that I don’t have to take a shot in the dark, yet I may be as wrong about these nominees as I’ve ever been. And the way this race has been shaking up, I’ll be perfectly all right with that.
Best Picture
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Django Unchained
Moonrise Kingdrom
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Skyfall
Dark Horse: The Master, Amour
If you’re gonna toy with us with the number of nominees, can’t there just be 12? The rules from last year stands in which there will be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, and to be eligible for a nomination, a film must get at least one first place vote.
All of these titles have their passionate supporters, and most are both box office successes and universally admired. With that logic, at least six of these are fairly certain nominees, those being “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Lincoln,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “Argo,” “Les Miserables” and “Life of Pi.”
“Django Unchained” is next on the list. At first, pundits were quick to call it dead when the movie simply had not been seen, and I was the confident one. Now that’s reversed because the movie is very loved, but I’m not fully on board. The Academy does love Tarantino however, and as a movie that’s a fun, accessible studio picture and a stylish cinephile movie, it’ll find a lot of love.
Then there’s the question of the “indie spot.” Ever since the expanded Best Picture field, there’s always been room for some Sundance or Fox Searchlight darling, maybe two spaces. So will “Moonrise Kingdom” or “Beasts of the Southern Wild” get in? Will neither? My vote is a daring plea for both. Neither has gotten the critic or guild love it has really needed. SAG snubbed both, but both found room with the Producers Guild, American Film Institute and National Board of Review. Even the Golden Globes had some love for “Moonrise.” What’s more, the narrative behind “Moonrise” is that this is Wes Anderson’s best film, the film in which he grew up without sacrificing his childlike instincts. As for “Beasts,” here’s a film that has gone the distance since Sundance, and Benh Zeitlin and Quvenzhane Wallis have earned Breakthrough awards left and right.
That makes for one last spot, if we really do have 10. Logic serves that if last year could find nine nominees, surely this year can do one better. But what gets it? “The Master” was that early contender, the divisive yet awe-inspiring movie that shared the same narrative as “The Tree of Life.” “Amour” is for the older generation of Academy voters, the love story that haunts and enchants, and one that celebrates two legendary actors of old. “Skyfall” too has a powerful narrative. Not only is it a box office smash, it might just be the best Bond yet. A recent PGA nod and plenty of acting buzz has been important, despite missing all the other guilds. It’s picked up steam where a month ago it would’ve been a wish.
As of very recently, I have the inkling suspicion that the last Best Picture slot will go to “Skyfall.” It will fall in the mainstream action movie slot that in past years belonged to “District 9,” “Inception” and would’ve belonged to “The Dark Knight” in 2008. And what sets it apart is that it’s not just “another Bond movie.” Sam Mendes has given the film institutional clout that every film before it has lacked, and “Skyfall” takes Bond’s story seriously in a way never before attempted. “The Master” did not have the cultural impact “The Tree of Life” did, and in three years of an expanded Best Picture field, we still have not had a legitimate foreign film be nominated (“The Artist” doesn’t count because it’s silent), so why should “Amour” change that?
For 50 years, a Bond movie has not been nominated for Best Picture, probably for good reason, but there is no better time than now for the Academy to mend that injustice to the most durable movie institution of all time.
Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Joaquin Phoenix – The Master, Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Performances that have been collectively nominated by the Screen Actors Guild, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice Awards have never failed to get an Oscar nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Denzel Washington and Hugh Jackman have all managed to receive all three.
So where does that leave Joaquin Phoenix? It leaves him out, officially rejected by the institution he bashed earlier this year. His performance is undeniably brilliant, but his surly attitude in this sadly political game will likely cost him the nomination he deserves.
Best Actress
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Dark Horse: Naomi Watts – The Impossible, Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea, Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain are probably the only two contenders in this category who are a sure thing. “Rust and Bone” and Marion Cotillard have been losing steam. Quvenzhane Wallis has earned every Breakthrough Actress performer in sight, but little else. Naomi Watts has the weight of a nod from SAG, the Globes and the Critics’ Choice, but I attest that she is not the center of “The Impossible.”
That leaves Emmanuelle Riva and Helen Mirren. These are both seasoned veterans, but this is not Mirren’s best work. Riva picked up the coveted LA Film Critics’ prize, the National Film Critics Association award, a second runner up spot with the New York critics and still nabbed a Critics’s Choice nod. And the Academy knows she will not get this chance again.
The only other dark horse is Rachel Weisz. How many Academy voters have actually seen “The Deep Blue Sea?” It’s hard to say, and the NYFCC acclaim feels like ages ago now. Her Golden Globe nomination is the only thing keeping her kicking.
Best Supporting Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Dark Horse: Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained, Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
If I am in the camp that “Skyfall” will receive a nomination, then surely Javier Bardem will get one too. He is electric in the role, and the film would not be the same without him. By earning a SAG nomination, he got the boost that the critics would not give him and instead lauded on Matthew McConaughey and Leonardo DiCaprio.
But both Leo and McConaughey are already facing an uphill battle. The vote for “Django” may well be split between former winner Christoph Waltz and Samuel L. Jackson. The same can be said about McConaughey, who is likely vying for “Magic Mike,” but then the NYFCC also recognized him for “Bernie.”
This is still a vast field with a lot of contenders, but you can feel very certain about the remaining four.
Best Supporting Actress
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Amy Adams – The Master
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Dark Horse: Ann Dowd – Compliance, Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy, Samantha Barks – Les Miserables, Judi Dench – Skyfall
Did I ever say this was a weak field? I don’t know how I could’ve said that if I have literally four dark horse contenders. Sally Field and Anne Hathaway are locks, and Helen Hunt certainly deserves it. If “The Master” is weak, there’s a possibility that so is Amy Adams, but I’m having a hard enough time filling that fifth slot.
Ann Dowd would be the first surprise nominee in a little seen film, as she was nominated by the Critics’ Choice, the Indie Spirits and the NBR. Nicole Kidman would be the other, picking up a SAG and Globe nod, despite her film being almost universally reviled. Samantha Barks is probably as deserving for her minimal screen time in “Les Miz” as Anne Hathaway is, but the vote is bound to be split. Judi Dench has a very important role in “Skyfall,” but I’m not sure the work is as gripping as Bardem’s.
That leaves Maggie Smith, who is adored by the Academy. She has two Oscars and is on a new streak of greatness in “Downton Abbey.” There’s also a small camp of people who want to throw “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” a bone. She’s my fifth.
From left to right, Bradley Cooper, David O’Russell and Jennifer Lawrence. Image courtesy of NY Daily News
Directing
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ben Affleck – Argo
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Dark Horse: Tom Hooper – Les Miserables, Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master, Michael Haneke – Amour
Save for predicting what the Best Picture nominees would be if there were only five, directors have more of a narrative behind them and their films than anyone else. This year’s crop is ripe with stories.
Spielberg is in for sure. He’s the legendary American director taking on an American legend even greater than he is. Affleck is also in for sure. People feel “The Town” and “Gone Baby Gone” have been underrated, and with “Argo,” Ben Affleck has now been cemented as a serious American filmmaker for a new generation. Not only that, as a director he’s mounted his “comeback” to the A-list. And Bigelow is surely in. Winning Best Director before was previously seen as an accolade long overdue. Now Kathryn Bigelow is a Hollywood woman with a lot of power, and it’s scaring some people.
If logic serves, “Silver Linings and Les Miz” would round out the top five, but my money is on Ang Lee to steal Tom Hooper’s spot, not O. Russell’s. Lee was working on the visionary 3-D landscape in “Life of Pi” long before people had any clue what “Avatar” was. In doing so, he took an “unfilmable” novel on the silver screen, arguably advancing what cinema is capable of. “Les Miz” is well liked, but did Hooper go above and beyond the Broadway musical? The Directors’ Guild just spoke today by snubbing O. Russell and including Hooper, but O. Russell is a big part of that film’s style and dry humor. And you know what? “Silver Linings” is just the better film.
The last two dark horses I have listed are Paul Thomas Anderson and Michael Haneke. No one would question that the two are the auteurs behind their respected films, and nominating one of them would be the conciliatory way of overlooking either “The Master” or “Amour” for Best Picture. Terrence Malick got a nomination last year after all.
Best Original Screenplay
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark Horse: Looper – Rian Johnson, The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano, Flight – John Gatins, Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
The screenplay categories are where the Academy can cover their bases in case something gets snubbed or in case they want to honor something that really doesn’t have a chance elsewhere.
That’s why “Looper” is a very powerful dark horse. It would be Rian Johnson’s first Oscar nomination, but he’s got some stiff competition from PTA, who the Academy may not respect as a director, but certainly do as a writer. “The Master” would be his fourth screenplay nomination.
The same can also be said for “The Intouchables,” “Flight” and “Seven Psychopaths,” which is specifically about the writing process.
Confusing the whole issue is the Writers’ Guild. If “Amour” and “Django” were eligible for that prize, they’d far and away be seen as strong contenders and not underdogs.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo – Chris Terrio
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
Dark Horse: Les Miserables – William Nicholson, The Sessions – Ben Lewin, Life of Pi – David Magee
I said in my previous column that “Life of Pi” is not remembered for it’s dialogue, and it’s that very reason why I think it’ll be overlooked in place of the slightly more poetic “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” a film that captures the beauty of the world and the rugged dialect of the bayou.
My fifth pick then is “The Perks of Being a Wallflower.” Remember when “Precious” won because it had “based on the novel by Sapphire” in the title? Well what do you think The Academy thinks about an author adapting and directing his own cult novel? “Perks” has performed very well with the critics groups and even got a WGA nod. It’s got a much better shot than something like “Les Miz,” a story pretty faithfully adapted from a play. Such devotion prevented the nominations of “Rabbit Hole” and “Carnage” in previous years.
Additional Categories
Below the jump I look at the technical categories in the race, which I’m not fully equipped to predict, but play ball with me here. Maybe I’ll have a good prediction streak.
If all serves from these tech categories, here’s my overall count for Oscar nominations per film.
Every year there are great performers and films that for whatever reason do not get the attention they deserve at the Oscars. Sometimes they’re underrated, sometimes they’re critical darlings and sometimes the field is just too vast.
I guess I should be proud that when I did this feature last year, none of the movies or performers I named got nominated. Is that a good thing? Anyway, here again I’ve picked some names that have nary a prayer when the Oscar nominations are announced next Thursday. If it feels like I’m missing a really good one, assume they actually have a shot.
Best Picture
Looper
The Kid With a Bike
The Turin Horse
Bernie
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Rust and Bone
The Impossible
I’ll maybe wish I included my four of my Top 10 movies of the year on this list when they don’t get nominated. Those are “The Master,” “Skyfall,” “Moonrise Kingdom” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.”
But the movies I have selected are all just as wonderful and not Oscar bait at all. “Looper” is exactly what clever studio filmmaking should be. “The Kid With a Bike” is such a heartbreaking and darling film about a kid who loves too strong the things that don’t love him back, and it’s only being forgotten because it premiered two Cannes film festivals ago. “The Turin Horse” is so gigantic, epic and hard to watch, it may just be considered one of the best movies ever made years from now. “Rust and Bone” is a daring romance that the Academy simply hasn’t seen. “Bernie” treads the line between comedy, drama and documentary a little too closely for the Academy to care. “Perks” is destined to be a teen classic alongside “The Breakfast Club.” And “The Impossible” should have Oscar bait written all over it, but Academy voters have already booted it out of contention in fields such as Visual Effects and Makeup.
There’s no questioning that the movies that are being nominated for Best Picture are quality films, but some of my picks might hold up in the culture’s eye just a little better over time.
‘Tis the awards season for many lists and nominations. I’ve had a lot of fun doing this column, but this is probably my last of this sort. Next week I’ll likely take off because of the holiday, and the following week I’ll put together an article of my final Oscar predictions, charting the ups and downs of certain films based on the preliminary predictions I’ve made each week since.
This is the point when most Oscar bloggers say that all that’s left are the Oscars. The Best of lists have started trickling out, the Golden Globes have been named and subsequently ignored and all the movies have been seen. You and I both know that last bit isn’t true, because I’ll likely miss “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Amour,” “On the Road,” “Not Fade Away,” “Searching for Sugarman,” “Rust and Bone,” “How to Survive a Plague,” “The House I Live In” and “The Gatekeepers” and “West of Memphis” before the year is out, and God knows I’m trying much harder than you to see these.
But nevertheless, I’ll cobble together a Best of the Year list myself along with some other fun features in the next few days. So for the last time, here’s this week’s roundup.
Golden Globe Nominations Announced
The Golden Globes have a tendency to be plain embarrassing. They’ll nominate something “The Tourist” to get Johnny Depp in attendance, and their ridiculous split between drama and comedy or musical means that nothing gets snubbed, except of course for things that are actually interesting. Last Thursday, “Lincoln” led the pack with seven nominations, and the only real surprise of a nomination were the multiple for “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen.” Okay, whatever, we’ll let you have that one.
Scott Feinberg’s analysis is by the far the best of them, mentioning what a big deal it is to see Nicole Kidman, Rachel Weisz, Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams, Richard Gere, Emily Blunt, Ewan McGregor and Leonardo DiCaprio, although he probably lends a little more weight to the Globes than I do. The biggest, yet predictable omissions included “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Amour.”
What really piqued my interest in Feinberg’s analysis was one statistic that said people who are nominated for a SAG award, Critics’ Choice and Golden Globe all go on to an Oscar nomination, and he’s got a list of five in the Best Actor race already. Those names are Bradley Cooper, Daniel Day-Lewis, John Hawkes, Hugh Jackman and Denzel Washington. You tell me who’s missing. (Full list via The Race)
Hair and Makeup Category Shortlisted
Here’s the list of the seven films advancing in the newly revised Makeup category that now also includes work for hair dressing.
“Hitchcock”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“Les Misérables”
“Lincoln”
“Looper”
“Men in Black 3”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
The two big snubs here are “Cloud Atlas” and “Holy Motors,” both of which involve characters going through multiple performances and appearances, and “Holy Motors” especially calls attention to its makeup. I also would’ve liked to see “The Impossible” on this list for the amount of blood stained clothes and Naomi Watts looking ghastly that’s in that movie. (via Oscars.com)
“Zero Dark Thirty” selected by Chicago Film Critics
Hailing from Chicago myself (I didn’t vote. Don’t flatter yourself), I always find these interesting. Announced on Monday, the Chicago critics selected “Zero Dark Thirty” as their winner for Best Picture while granting it four other awards. “The Master” came in second with four awards. This is an interesting list, one that goes against the grain a tiny bit by selecting “The Invisible War” as Best Doc and “ParaNorman” as Best Animated. The full list of winners is below. (Full list of nominees via CFCA website)
Best Picture – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director – Kathryn Bigelow
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress – Jessica Chastain
Best Supporting Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Supporting Actress – Amy Adams
Best Original Screenplay – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay – Lincoln
Best Foreign Language Film – Amour
Best Documentary – The Invisible War
Best Animated Feature – ParaNorman
Best Cinematography – The Master
Best Original Score – The Master
Best Art Direction – Moonrise Kingdom
Best Editing – Zero Dark Thirty
Most Promising Performer – Quvenzhane Wallis
Most Promising Filmmaker – Benh Zeitlin
New York Times Best of the Year Lists
If the New York Times sounds off on anything it’s a big deal, but what I loved about A.O. Scott’s and Manohla Dargis’s lists was the optimism brimming from them about the state of cinema, all this coming from a year where people have been mostly negative. Dargis didn’t rank hers, but Scott picked 25. They’re must-reads. (Dargis’s list and Scott’s list via NYT.com)
Manohla Dargis
Amour
The Deep Blue Sea
The Gatekeepers
Holy Motors
Moonrise Kingdom
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia
Searching for Sugarman
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
A.O. Scott
1. Amour
2. Lincoln
3. Beasts of the Southern Wild
4. Footnote
5. The Master
6. Zero Dark Thirty
7. Django Unchained
8. Goodbye, First Love
9. Neighboring Sounds
10. The Grey
New consensus emerges from critic polls
I feel Metacritic’s aggregation is fairly comprehensive in terms of evaluating the best movie of the year, but both Indiewire and Village Voice conducted their own critics polls and selected “Holy Motors” and “The Master” respectfully. It’s almost funny considering that it’s likely neither of those will be nominated for Best Picture (but we’ll hold out for “The Master.”) and the other consensus title, “Zero Dark Thirty,” may just win Best Picture. Indiewire also did a cut and dry determination of what the Oscar nominees would be based on their votes, and of the 10 Best Picture nominees, they selected six potential Oscar nominees. Here are the individual critic poll Top 10 lists:
I was tempted to just post this article on Tuesday, because this week has been HUGE for Oscar news. Three categories shortlisted and the first of the critics’ awards dropped; that’s a lot to cover.
New York Film Critics Circle Announce 2012 Awards
I wrote more on the Oscar chances for all of these movies now that the NYFCC has had their say at a new blog called The Artifice. Just know that “Zero Dark Thirty” is now the movie to beat, McConaughey and Weisz have earned a new life, and “The Master” is facing an increasingly uphill battle at a nomination. (via nyfcc.com) UPDATE: Turns out the movies that do not appear on this list didn’t do as badly as everyone expected. The NYFCC has a complicated ballot voting system to determine winners in each category, and this year just about every category was taken to multiple rounds of voting to determine a consensus, proving that 2012 has a wide array of great movies with supporters in every camp. In fact, “Lincoln,” which performed so handsomely here, actually placed fourth on the overall ballot for Best Picture, behind “The Master” and “Moonrise Kingdom.” (via J. Hoberman)
Best Picture: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Screenplay: Tony Kushner – Lincoln
Best Actress: Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field – Lincoln
Best Supporting Actor: Matthew McConaughey – Bernie, Magic Mike
Best Cinematographer: Greig Fraser – Zero Dark Thirty
Best Animated Film: Frankenweenie
Best Non-Fiction Film: The Central Park Five
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best First Film: David France – How to Survive a Plague
Documentary Feature category shortlisted
Maybe normal people think it’s crazy that documentaries, of all things, could make some movie buffs so up in arms. And yet that is the case every year when the Documentary Branch of the Academy announces their shortlist. Now granted, last year these people snubbed Werner Herzog, Errol Morris and Steve James, so it was unlikely there was going to be even greater fervor this year. But, despite me having seen only a handful, the number of films I’ve heard of on this list of 15 and the number still absent speak to how great a year it’s been for documentaries. All this despite the branch’s head Michael Moore instating new rules, such as the requirement to get your movie screened in New York and L.A. and reviewed by The New York Times. Here’s the list: (via Oscars.com)
“Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry”
“Bully”
“Chasing Ice”
“Detropia”
“Ethel”
“5 Broken Cameras”
“The Gatekeepers”
“The House I Live In”
“How to Survive a Plague”
“The Imposter”
“The Invisible War”
“Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God”
“Searching for Sugar Man”
“This is Not a Film”
“The Waiting Room”
So missing from this list is “The Central Park Five,” which if you were paying attention above just won the NYFCC honors, “West of Memphis,” “The Queen of Versailles,” “Paul Williams Still Alive,” “Marley,” “Jiro Dreams of Sushi,” “Samsara” and “Marina Ambrovic: The Artist is Present,” which, admittedly, could be a short list all its own. This list of 15 could be a lot worse than it is, and the few that have been snubbed won’t have any trouble getting seen. This is me trying to not get too angry.
Visual Effects category shortlisted
The Academy announced on Thursday the list of 10 potential nominees in the Visual Effects category. The full list is below: (via Oscars.com)
“The Amazing Spider-Man”
“Cloud Atlas”
“The Dark Knight Rises”
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey”
“John Carter”
“Life of Pi”
“Marvel’s The Avengers”
“Prometheus”
“Skyfall”
“Snow White and the Huntsman”
You’ll immediately notice the snub of “The Impossible,” which has an unbelievably lifelike depiction of a tsunami hitting Thailand. My guess is that “The Impossible’s” sequence, while dazzling, is just a small part of an otherwise effects free movie, thus paving the way instead for these 10 gargantuan Hollywood blockbusters. “Snow White,” “John Carter” and “Spider-Man” may all be surprises, but more pleasant surprises would’ve been something like “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “The Grey,” “The Cabin in the Woods,” “Looper,” “Flight” or even “Chronicle” from way back in February.
Best Live Action Short Film Category shortlisted
This may come as a shock, but the Live Action short category is actually news! The news here is that the shortlist has a record 11 films on it due to a tie in the voting. That won’t mean any more or less nominees, still anywhere from three to five, but it’s something. The only names you’ll recognize however are Ron and Bryce Dallas Howard for their short film “when you find me.” Good luck seeing any of these. (via Oscars.com)
“A Fábrica (The Factory),” Aly Muritiba, director (Grafo Audiovisual)
“Asad,” Bryan Buckley, director, and Mino Jarjoura, producer (Hungry Man)
“Buzkashi Boys,” Sam French, director, and Ariel Nasr, producer (Afghan Film Project)
“Curfew,” Shawn Christensen, director (Fuzzy Logic Pictures)
“Death of a Shadow (Dood van een Schaduw),” Tom Van Avermaet, director, and Ellen De Waele, producer (Serendipity Films)
“Henry,” Yan England, director (Yan England)
“Kiruna-Kigali,” Goran Kapetanovic, director (Hepp Film AB)
“The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars,” Silvia Bizio and Paola Porrini Bisson, producers (Oh! Pen LLC)
“9meter,” Anders Walther, director, and Tivi Magnusson, producer (M & M Productions A/S)
“Salar,” Nicholas Greene, director, and Julie Buck, producer (Nicholas Greene)
“when you find me,” Ron Howard, executive producer, and Bryce Dallas Howard, director (Freestyle Picture Company)
“Amour” sweeps European Film Awards
It isn’t so often a Palme D’Or winner can actually devour every other award its up for. “Amour” won Best European Picture, Director for Michael Haneke, Actor for Jean-Louis Trintignant and Actress for Emmanuelle Riva. That’s why this is increasingly looking like an even bigger Oscar contender than some are predicting. For what it’s worth, Haneke has already won Best Director for both “The White Ribbon” and “Cache.” (via Indiewire)
I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving holiday. I took off last week so I would too, but I still saw plenty of movies, including “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Magic Mike,” “Arbitrage,” “The Deep Blue Sea” and “This Must Be the Place.”
“Zero Dark Thirty” and “Les Miserables” screened for Academy audiences
There were a few Oscar bloggers getting kind of antsy before Thanksgiving that this Oscar season was in a momentary lull. But fear not privileged pundits! These movies have now screened for you even though everyone else, myself included will have to wait until at least Christmas Day, if not 2013. Both “Les Mis” and “Zero Dark Thirty” now seem like very likely Best Picture contenders if not winners, and there were plenty of critics to fawn over each of them. Anne Hathaway, Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Eddie Redmayne and Jessica Chastain have all entered the acting fray as well.
Indie Spirit Award Nominations Announced
“Silver Linings Playbook” and “Moonrise Kingdom” each lead the pack at the Indie Spirits with five nominations a piece, including for Best Feature. The remaining three films were “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Bernie” and the unbeknownst to me “Keep the Lights On,” which scored three nods. Scott Feinberg gives a very helpful analysis that they may not amount to anything in the grand scheme of things, but I like the Indie Spirits because they tend to recognize a handful of movies you’ve never heard of as well as the ones you have that won’t get the recognition they deserve at the Oscars. (Full nominations via Indiewire)
Gotham Awards honor “Moonrise Kingdom”
The Gotham Awards are the first awards show of the year, so that’s the reason above all why they matter, especially since they’re not televised. They’re known as New York’s answer to the Indie Spirits, and by honoring both “Moonrise Kingdom” and the documentary “How to Survive a Plague,” they’ve given serious pushes to both films and a push in the opposite direction to “The Master,” amongst others.
Photo Credit: The Hollywood Reporter
Hollywood Reporter Actress Roundtable
In my previous installment of Off the Red Carpet, I plugged THR’s Actor Roundtable but wondered what happened to the women. Well, they got their own discussion period (although they were interviewed by two men and placed on non-threatening couches with more muted, soothing, womanly colors) after all. This crop of seven includes Anne Hathaway, Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams, Marion Cotillard, Naomi Watts, Sally Field and Helen Hunt, all of whom have very good chances at an Oscar nomination this year, and three of whom I am absolutely in love with. (via The Hollywood Reporter)
The Atlantic continues beating of “Cinema is Dead” drum
A number of critics recently have been bemoaning the so-called decline of the movies in the pop culture zeitgeist, but this article by The Atlantic featuring some pretty shocking quotes from Martin Scorsese’s editor Thelma Schoonmaker is probably the most depressing yet, acknowledging that film prints and the ability to produce a celluloid copy of an old movie are being completely fazed out by major studios. What’s more, she claims contemporary restoration people have no idea how some of these movies are supposed to look. This concerns the Oscars because the Academy themselves have had to sponsor events to celebrate movies shown on film. (via The Atlantic)
We’re at the point where there’s going to be a big movie opening every week until the end of the year now, so get excited.
“Skyfall” has biggest Bond opening ever
“Skyfall” earned $86.7 million at the Box Office this weekend, sending it on its way to trounce even the inflation added record of the fourth Bond, “Thunderball.” It’s popular appeal as well as its just plain awesome quality has lead some to speculate the possibility of nominating Judi Dench, Javier Bardem and Roger Deakins for their respected Oscars, as well as a push for the movie itself for Best Picture. It’s a long shot, but I would be on board.
Best Animated Short shortlist revealed
Could we soon be saying, Oscar Winner Maggie Simpson? The shortlist for the Best Animated Short category was revealed last week, and it includes “The Simpsons” short “The Longest Daycare” and the lovey Disney short “Paperman.” The Pixar short film this year that screened before “Brave,” “La Luna,” was nominated and lost last year. But I can guarantee you now that the little underdog movie no one’s heard of and no one will see will almost definitely win this category. Here’s the full list: (via In Contention)
“Adam and Dog”
“Combustible”
“Dripped”
“The Eagleman Stag”
“The Fall of the House of Usher”
“Fresh Guacamole”
“Head over Heels”
“Maggie Simpson in ‘The Longest Daycare'”
“Paperman”
“Tram”
Christoph Waltz in Best Actor race
I said last week that for some reason people already want to count “Django Unchained” out of the race before anyone’s even seen it. Why no one would consider Christoph Waltz owning “Django” just like he did “Inglourious Basterds” is beyond me, but the difference this year is that he’s being pushed for the Lead Actor race now rather than supporting. Yes, it’s a crowded field, but he was just that good before, and I don’t see why he can’t be again. This also means that Leonardo DiCaprio and even Samuel L. Jackson are people to keep an eye on in the Supporting race. (via In Contention)
Image Credit: The Hollywood Reporter
The Hollywood Reporter Airs Annual Actor Roundtable
Each year The Hollywood Reporter puts together an extended interview roundtable with a collection of actors, usually Oscar hopefuls for that year. Last year they interviewed George Clooney, Viola Davis, Christopher Plummer, Charlize Theron and Michael Fassbender, and this year they’ve interviewed Jamie Foxx, Matt Damon, Denzel Washington, Richard Gere, Alan Arkin and John Hawkes. All six are potential Oscar candidates for acting, three more likely than the others, but their discussion veered much more intellectual. They talked acting on stage, what they would do if they couldn’t act, family and whom they admired. It’s a stirring hour-long discussion between smart actors being very candid in a setting you won’t see anywhere else. (via The Hollywood Reporter)
Gurus ‘O Gold released
The Gurus ‘O Gold have been my go to barometer for Oscar predictions for the last few years. Collectively, they are probably better at anticipating the awards and forecasting changes than any one of them individually. This is their first time forecasting the major categories this year since Toronto. Things are bound to change as a few other movies set in and are seen by the public, but the universal consensus right now is unsurprisingly “Argo,” followed closely by TIFF winner “Silver Linings Playbook.” The surprise I see in the list is the inclusion of “Flight” in 10 spot and “Moonrise Kingdom” on the outs. 10 is probably a generous number for nominees anyway. Take a look at the full list if you’re like me and love charts and spreadsheets and stuff, and avoid it if you think it has the potential to suck all the fun out of the Oscars. (via Movie City News)
Will Best Picture match Screenplay?
A blogger at “Variety” observed that last year was a surprising anomaly in the trend for nominees for Best Picture and Best Original or Adapted Screenplay. The movie with the BP nod always gets the screenplay nod, with historically very few exceptions. Last year alone matched the last 10 years in terms of gaps between the two categories, and it’s worth noting that this year may go the same. “Moonrise Kingdom,” “The Master,” “Amour,” “Django Unchained,” “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “The Sessions” are all questionable nominees for Best Picture, and that’s just listing the front runners in the screenplay races. (via Variety)
Ben Affleck to receive “Modern Master Award”
For a guy gunning for an Oscar for Best Director with a film set in the ‘70s, it’s got to feel good to win an award called the “Modern Master Award” at the Santa Barbara International Film Festival. Ben Affleck will receive the award on January 26, conveniently not long before the Oscar ceremony itself. (via The Race)
I took a week off last week, despite there being at least one piece of gigantic movie news, perhaps not Oscar relevant, but enough to make nerds on Twitter (myself included) flip out for better or worse.
But with the election now firmly behind us, I can focus on a race with just one president running (“Lincoln”).
President Obama defeats Mitt Romney in Presidential Election
Hey! Guess what? Now funding for “Sesame Street” and PBS won’t be cut and young kids will still like the movies and art for future generations!
Disney buys Lucasfilm for $4 billion, plans to make “Star Wars Episode VII”
“Star Wars” is now coming back in 2015, and I couldn’t be more disappointed. Even if “Star Wars” has become something of a joke since the prequels and having the “Star Wars” name on your product in fact makes it worse, the “Star Wars” series, with George Lucas’s muddy fingers and all, had become bad but never boring.
For Disney, who also owns Marvel, to plan to release “Star Wars VII” in the same year as “The Avengers 2,” is to make it into another tentpole blockbuster and popcorn movie that will be instantly forgotten as soon as people walk out of the theater.
Rumors are now spilling in that Matthew Vaughn (“Kick-Ass,” “X-Men: First Class”) is in talks to direct, Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fischer are all interested in reprising their roles, and George Lucas is supposed to still be a “consultant,” whatever that means. These are telltale signs that this is not going to be an interesting film that takes the franchise in a new direction but one that is sheer fanboy baiting. (via Collider)
21 films eligible for Best Animated Feature
The number of animated movies considered eligible each year for the Best Animated Feature Oscar dictates the number of nominees the category will have, three or five, and five will definitely be the winning number this year based on 21 films meeting the Academy’s requirements. This says to me that Disney could very well have three potential nominees this year with “Brave,” “Wreck-It Ralph” and “Frankenweenie.” Expect buzz for “Rise of the Guardians” and one of the Gkids (“The Secret of Kells,” “Chico and Rita”) distributed entries. (Full list via In Contention)
Box office numbers bode well for “Wreck-It Ralph,” “Flight,” “Argo”
In a big surprise, Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph” trounced the weekly competition by raking in nearly $50 million on its opening weekend, double that of Robert Zemeckis’s “Flight,” a number that’s really nothing to scoff at. “Argo” also performed well in its third week by making $10 million, proving that this is a movie generating money by word of mouth that has the legs to go all the way to a Best Picture prize. Doing less well was “Cloud Atlas,” which in two weeks has only brought in $18 million of its over $100 million budget. (via Box Office Mojo)
“Hitchcock” premieres at AFI Film Fest
Film buffs are eagerly awaiting the movie “Hitchcock,” for obvious reasons, and early reviews of the movie say that although Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren provide their characters with range and depth, first time feature director Sacha Gervasi’s film is a lightweight entry that feels clunky at times and goes against the grain of what people actually know about Hitch. They also now have HBO’s “The Girl” to compare it against, which likewise received poor reviews by painting Hitchcock as little more than a peeping tom.
European Film Awards and British Independent Film Awards announce nominees
“Amour,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “The Intouchables,” and “The Imposter” are all among the nominees in two of Europe’s smaller award races, the European Film Awards and the British Independent Film Awards. The former nominated films that won’t get an American distribution this year and the latter nominated films that got American distribution last year. See the full lists here and here. (via In Contention)
Week 4 Predictions Chart
This week I’m adding in some preliminary Screenplay predictions since the rest of the field is unchanged in my mind.
