I hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving holiday. I took off last week so I would too, but I still saw plenty of movies, including “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Magic Mike,” “Arbitrage,” “The Deep Blue Sea” and “This Must Be the Place.”
“Zero Dark Thirty” and “Les Miserables” screened for Academy audiences
There were a few Oscar bloggers getting kind of antsy before Thanksgiving that this Oscar season was in a momentary lull. But fear not privileged pundits! These movies have now screened for you even though everyone else, myself included will have to wait until at least Christmas Day, if not 2013. Both “Les Mis” and “Zero Dark Thirty” now seem like very likely Best Picture contenders if not winners, and there were plenty of critics to fawn over each of them. Anne Hathaway, Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Eddie Redmayne and Jessica Chastain have all entered the acting fray as well.
Indie Spirit Award Nominations Announced
“Silver Linings Playbook” and “Moonrise Kingdom” each lead the pack at the Indie Spirits with five nominations a piece, including for Best Feature. The remaining three films were “Beasts of the Southern Wild,” “Bernie” and the unbeknownst to me “Keep the Lights On,” which scored three nods. Scott Feinberg gives a very helpful analysis that they may not amount to anything in the grand scheme of things, but I like the Indie Spirits because they tend to recognize a handful of movies you’ve never heard of as well as the ones you have that won’t get the recognition they deserve at the Oscars. (Full nominations via Indiewire)
Gotham Awards honor “Moonrise Kingdom”
The Gotham Awards are the first awards show of the year, so that’s the reason above all why they matter, especially since they’re not televised. They’re known as New York’s answer to the Indie Spirits, and by honoring both “Moonrise Kingdom” and the documentary “How to Survive a Plague,” they’ve given serious pushes to both films and a push in the opposite direction to “The Master,” amongst others.
Hollywood Reporter Actress Roundtable
In my previous installment of Off the Red Carpet, I plugged THR’s Actor Roundtable but wondered what happened to the women. Well, they got their own discussion period (although they were interviewed by two men and placed on non-threatening couches with more muted, soothing, womanly colors) after all. This crop of seven includes Anne Hathaway, Rachel Weisz, Amy Adams, Marion Cotillard, Naomi Watts, Sally Field and Helen Hunt, all of whom have very good chances at an Oscar nomination this year, and three of whom I am absolutely in love with. (via The Hollywood Reporter)
The Atlantic continues beating of “Cinema is Dead” drum
A number of critics recently have been bemoaning the so-called decline of the movies in the pop culture zeitgeist, but this article by The Atlantic featuring some pretty shocking quotes from Martin Scorsese’s editor Thelma Schoonmaker is probably the most depressing yet, acknowledging that film prints and the ability to produce a celluloid copy of an old movie are being completely fazed out by major studios. What’s more, she claims contemporary restoration people have no idea how some of these movies are supposed to look. This concerns the Oscars because the Academy themselves have had to sponsor events to celebrate movies shown on film. (via The Atlantic)
Also, Anthony Hopkins has some predictably bad words to say about awards season in an interesting interview with Huff Post, and Angelina Jolie is trying to get Ewan McGregor an Oscar based on how impressed she was with his work in “The Impossible.”
Week 6 Predictions
Best Picture
Front Runners
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty
Moonrise Kingdrom
Probables
Skyfall
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Flight
Long Shots
Hitchcock
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
The Sessions
Promised Land
The Impossible
The Hobbit
Rust and Bone
Just about all of those front-running films are all over the map right now in terms of critical praise, box office returns and early awards season success. I still think people have to see “Django” and “The Hobbit,” before we can call this a closed race for certain, but if I had to put my money on a number of nominees right now, I would say seven is it.
Best Actor
Front Runners
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Probables
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Matt Damon – Promised Land
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Long Shots
Suraj Sharma – Life of Pi
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained
Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Jack Black – Bernie
Denis Lavant – Holy Motors
Now it looks like Hugh Jackman’s the guy to watch. I haven’t seen the film, so I can’t say, but the surprising part is that if he were to bump out anybody, it would be Denzel, not Bradley Cooper. Working in Jackman’s favor is that he’s never been nominated for an Oscar and is probably due after being one of the best hosts in a long while.
Best Actress
Front Runners
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Probables
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Long Shots
Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Maggie Smith – Quartet
Anne Thompson had Quvenzhane on the outs in her most recent set of predictions, but with a boost from both the Gothams and Indie Spirits, I think that’s ridiculous.
Best Supporting Actor
Front Runners
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Probables
Eddie Redmayne – Les Miserables
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Samuel L. Jackson – Django Unchained
Javier Bardem – Skyfall
Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike
John Goodman – Argo/Flight
Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi
Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas
Long Shots
Jude Law – Anna Karenina
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Chris Tucker – Silver Linings Playbook
Tom Holland – The Impossible
Aaron Paul – Smashed
Omar Sy – The Intouchables
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Well, this category has fleshed out nicely, hasn’t it? Redmayne and Crowe are now both in the hunt and have more buzz at the moment than Leo, for obvious reasons. But what their push means is that these on the bubble guys are facing an even more uphill battle and others like Jude Law and William H. Macy have even less of a shot.
Best Supporting Actress
Front Runners
Amy Adams – The Master
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Probables
Amanda Seyfried – Les Miserables
Helena Bonham Carter – Les Miserables
Judi Dench – Skyfall
Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Kelly Reilly – Flight
Long Shots
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Kerry Washington – Django Unchained
Shirley MacClaine – Bernie
“Les Mis” is all the buzz right now in this category save for Sally Field in “Lincoln,” so maybe this is where the movie gets a good chunk of its nods after all.
Directing
Front Runners
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Probables
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Michael Haneke – Amour
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Long Shots
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Juan Antonio Bayona – The Impossible
Robert Zemeckis – Flight
Just trimming the fat in this category this week.
Best Original Screenplay
Front Runners
Moonrise Kingdom – Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola
The Master – Paul Thomas Anderson
Amour – Michael Haneke
Zero Dark Thirty – Mark Boal
Django Unchained – Quentin Tarantino
Probables
The Intouchables – Olivier Nakache, Eric Toledano
Flight – John Gatins
Magic Mike – Reid Carolin
Looper – Rian Johnson
Seven Psychopaths – Martin McDonagh
Promised Land – Matt Damon, Dave Eggers, John Krasinski
Long Shots
Smashed – James Ponsoldt, Susan Burke
Arbitrage – Nicholas Jarecki
Take This Waltz – Sarah Polley
Mark Boal’s “Zero Dark Thirty” script is basically being described as hard hitting journalism, with a very dense and researched account of the hunt for Osama bin Laden that started well before we had any idea where to find him.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Front Runners
Argo – Chris Terrio
Silver Linings Playbook – David O. Russell
Lincoln – Tony Kushner, John Logan, Paul Webb
Life of Pi – David Magee
Les Miserables – William Nicholson
Probables
The Sessions – Ben Lewin
Beasts of the Southern Wild – Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeithlin
On the Road – Jose Rivera
Anna Karenina – Tom Stoppard
The Perks of Being a Wallflower – Stephen Chbosky
This is 40 – Judd Apatow
Long Shots
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – Ol Parker
Hitchcock – John J. McLaughlin
Cloud Atlas – Tom Tykwer, Andy and Lana Wachowski
Like I said, “Les Mis” is all anyone’s talking about right now. Maybe a screenplay nod for it too? “Life of Pi” is also being called a successful adaptation of the unfilmable novel, so it probably has a shot as well. The one I bumped down however is “Beasts,” it surprisingly missing an Indie Spirit nomination in this category altogether.