I needed to find a way to write about the Oscars. I’m constantly seeing news and updates in everything I read and everyone I follow on Twitter, so I know what’s happening almost as soon as they do.
But I don’t live in New York or LA. I don’t have press access to early film screenings. I can’t do more than follow distributors on Facebook and Twitter to get the same updates the pros do.
I’m viewing all this second hand, from just off the red carpet.
But that doesn’t mean I can’t share everything I’ve heard, and that doesn’t mean I don’t have my own take on all that’s going on.
So what I’ve decided to do is start a weekly column where I round up all the Oscar news I’ve found relevant in the past week and share it with my own spin. It’s the least I can do.
Up Till Now
Since this is my first “Off the Red Carpet” column, I feel it’s necessary to catch everyone up on all that’s happened in the race so far.
“Amour” won the Palme D’Or at Cannes, making it only the second time a director has won with two consecutive films. Director Michael Haneke won with his previous film, “The White Ribbon,” back in 2008. That film was nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but came home empty handed. This one on the other hand is a contender for Picture, Actor, Actress, Director, Foreign Film and possibly more. It’s the story of an elderly couple of music teachers who is torn apart when one of them suffers a stroke.
The Oscar nominations have been moved up to the early date of Thursday, January 10, 2013, meaning that the nominations are in fact before the Golden Globes. This could prove troublesome for movies being released late in the year, but it’ll keep buzzy movies in the conversation just when they need to be.
David O. Russell’s “Silver Linings Playbook” won the People’s Choice Prize at the Toronto International Film Festival, making it the new front-runner for Best Picture.
It’s pronounced “que-ven-zha-ne.” Get to know the name.
Seth McFarlane of “Family Guy” and “Ted” was selected as this year’s Oscar host. Yes yes yes, younger demo, he was good on SNL, Hollywood insider, blah de blah. Just please no racist “Beasts of the Southern Wild” jokes from a talking blender.
“Hitchcock” Trailer
Fox Searchlight added a surprise contender to the Oscar race by announcing that “Hitchcock,” a biopic on none other than Hitch himself as he tries to make “Psycho,” would not only be completed in time but would be released by November. Any movie about the greatest director of all time is already going to be Hollywood catnip, and with a cast that includes Anthony Hopkins, Helen Mirren, Scarlett Johannson and more, it’s bound to be a contender. This week, all that was made a certainty with this cool, funny, stylish trailer that plays up Hopkins, Mirren and Janet Leigh’s enormous breasts.
“Lincoln” and “Not Fade Away” Premiere at NYFF
The ongoing New York Film Festival already proved to be more significant in years past by premiering “Life of Pi” there and including the Cannes winner “Amour” on the line-up, continuing to remind audiences that it’s worth their consideration. But the big news this week was that the secret screening was none other than Steven Spielberg’s much anticipated “Lincoln.” The film is supposed to be rightfully awesome, as are both Daniel Day-Lewis and Tommy Lee Jones. – via The Race
What’s more, the centerpiece film, “Not Fade Away,” is the first feature film from “The Sopranos” creator David Chase. The movie is riddled with ‘60s rock memorabilia and serves as an uncommercial love letter to the era. That means its Oscar chances are slim, but reviews have ranged from mixed to pretty solid. – via Indiewire with Anne Thompson
Eligible Foreign Films List Released
71 movies are on this year’s eligibility list for Best Foreign Language Film. One of the big surprises is that France’s selection was not “Amour” but was in fact the “Driving Miss Daisy”-esque crowd pleaser that’s already made a bundle of cash abroad, “The Intouchables.” That means that Austria has selected “Amour” as their film and other contenders like Cannes runner-up “Rust and Bone” will not be eligible. Some other potential nominees include Romania’s “Beyond the Hills” and Chile’s “No.” – via The Race
This all however raises questions about whether or not the rules for this category too are outdated. Consider a film like “Certified Copy.” It’s for all intensive purposes a French film, set in Italy, with an English-speaking cast and by an Iranian director. Increasingly, movies are not tied down to one country, and the Oscars should adjust accordingly. – via In Contention Podcast Ep. 90
Adele’s “Skyfall”
Thank God for Adele. Her title track song for the upcoming Bond film “Skyfall” ousted Mumford and Sons and “Gangnam Style” for at least one day on iTunes, and good and probably deserving of an Oscar nod.
I say this because the Best Original Song category has been absolute garbage the last couple of years, and it would be terrific to see someone of her caliber performing on the Oscar stage. Unfortunately, that all means nothing in the grand scheme of things. The song briefly references the original 007 theme, which could disqualify it in the long run for not being “100 percent original.”
But with the Academy confirming that there will be five nominees this year instead of the embarrassing two from last year, its hard to know what will be nominated if not this. – via In Contention
Further controversy over Documentary Rules
This week The New York Times published an article about voters in the documentary branch of the Academy asking if they like the new rules designed to make the nominees more inclusive.
The new rules state that any voter can watch all of the eligible films through DVD screeners, differing from the rules that have long governed the category, in which voters and movies are split up into groups and voters can only pick movies from their crop of films.
This has created problems for, oh, take your pick of massive snub fuck up from last year alone: “Into the Abyss,” “Tabloid,” “The Interrupters,” “Senna” and many more.
The article in essence says, “Wah. I don’t have time to watch 160 movies. No one does. Hmph.” But the point being made is that the smaller movies that might have benefitted from the old system now won’t get the time of day in favor of Academy members only watching and voting for the docs they’ve actually heard of.
To this I say, tough beans. Figure it out, and care more about actually watching movies, as is part of your job. – via The New York Times
My Oscar Picks
It’s damn early to be making any sort of prediction in just about any category, especially when I haven’t even seen 80 percent of the movies. And yet the blogs and podcasts I follow have broken the possibilities down so much that I’ve gotten a pretty clear sense of some of the bigger races. So here then are preliminary picks that will change week to week.
Best Picture
Front Runners
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Probables
Hitchcock
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Long Shots
Moonrise Kingdom
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Sessions
Promised Land
The Impossible
Flight
The Hobbit
Rust and Bone
I think what will be just as hard as last year will be figuring out just how many nominees there will be this year. I think the top five I have as front runners are pretty solid contenders, with probably four other spots open. My bet is that all of those probables will get in with the exception of “The Master,” leaving nine nominees. Although, any of the others have a chance of sneaking into one of those spots if they perform well later in the year.
Best Actor
Front Runners
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Probables
Matt Damon – Promised Land
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Denzel Washington – Flight
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Long Shots
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained
Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Jack Black – Bernie
Those five front runners look pretty solid if you ask me. I think the toss-ups are Cooper and Hopkins, with Denzel and Trintignant having the best shot at stealing their place. That long shot category is actually being pretty generous.
Best Actress
Front Runners
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Probables
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Long Shots
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
Fairly weak field this year. Cotillard is in for playing a paraplegic with nude scenes. Wallis is in for being 6 in her movie. Lawrence is in for being America’s most recent sweetheart. I don’t know why Streep isn’t getting more buzz, despite what I think about “Hope Springs.”
Best Supporting Actor
Front Runners
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Probables
Jude Law – Anna Karenina
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi
Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas
Long Shots
Omar Sy – The Intouchables
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike
Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises
Michael Fassbender – Prometheus
There are a lot of eligible people in this category this year, although that top four I probably wouldn’t touch. I can’t wait to see what Leo does, so I’m really hoping he’s the surprise fifth guy.
Best Supporting Actress
Front Runners
Amy Adams – The Master
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field – Lincoln
Probables
Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Long Shots
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Judi Dench – Skyfall
An even weaker category than the leading ladies. Weaver will probably be the fifth considering the movie she’s in, especially since Hathaway is really only supposed to have one amazing scene in “Les Mis.” In which case, I think Adams finally deserves her first Oscar.
Directing
Front Runners
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Probables
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Michael Haneke – Amour
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Gus Van Sant – Promised Land
Long Shots
David Chase – Not Fade Away
Dustin Hoffman – Quartet
Ben Lewin – The Sessions
Joe Wright – Anna Karenina
Robert Zemeckis – Flight
This is the most unpredictable at the moment. A safe bet is usually going with the solid Picture nominees, but then there’s a big movement to get PTA, Haneke and Wes Anderson all the first nominations they deserve.
See In Contention’s picks
See The Gurus of Gold’s picks here and here
Let’s leave it at that for now. I’m not even going to try to pick the screenplay categories let alone the other 16 awards.
Check back every Wednesday for more Oscar updates.
Can’t wait for Hitchcock and Skyfall!