1/21 Update: I’m going to stick to my original predictions that I said I had set in stone less than two weeks back, but already with the Golden Globes, the DGAs and a variety of other nominations and awards being announced within days of one another, the field has changed somewhat drastically. Films thought dead are now serious contenders, and some considered front runners are now on the bubble to even be recognized. I detail all my new changes and thoughts in bold and italics below, but the long and short of it is that “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” and “Bridesmaids” have some momentum, “War Horse” has tripped on the last furlong, and “Drive” and “Young Adult” were perhaps always too hopeful of picks on my part.
Welcome to Oscar season, where an analysis of which period pieces will be nominated for Best Costume Design can make a bracketology advocate during March Madness look sane.
This year’s race is closer than the Iowa caucuses (and most of the candidates just as mediocre) and the new voting system is more confusing than the BCS Championship.
But I’m here to coach you through what will happen when the nominees are announced on Tuesday, January 24.
Best Picture
- The Artist
- War Horse
- The Descendants
- Hugo
- Midnight in Paris
- The Help
- Moneyball
- The Tree of Life
- Dark Horses: Drive, Harry Potter 8
For those of you playing along at home, this year’s Best Picture category once again changed from being a field of 10 to being anywhere from five to 10. Only movies that receive five percent of the first place vote on the Academy’s ballots are even eligible.
This makes things particularly difficult on Oscar prognosticators like yours truly.
So in order to accurately predict this category, it’s critical to know which movies are not just popular with the general public but which are the far and away favorites.
This means tearjerkers and crowd pleasers like “The Artist,” “War Horse,” “The Descendants,” “Hugo” and “Midnight in Paris” are most definitely in.
“The Help” and “Moneyball” are crowd favorites, but are they anyone’s number one choice? My guess is yes, but “Moneyball” could yet be on the bubble.
That would make for a field of seven, but I’m predicting eight. “The Tree of Life” is by far the most polarizing and widely debated film of the year. Critics love it and hate it, but so do audiences. This film genuinely has a cult following of avid supporters that believe Terrence Malick’s film is a masterpiece.
But don’t count out “Drive” or the latest “Harry Potter.” The Academy voting body is younger than in years past, and they could potentially jump behind the hyper violent and stylish action movie or the wonderfully reviewed finale to the biggest franchise of all time.
1/21 Update: The two big movers in this category are “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” and “Bridesmaids,” which I didn’t mention originally at all. “Dragon Tattoo’s” big shake-up was the surprise nomination for David Fincher at the DGAs, which I did mention below would affect the Best Director race. But more and more people have seen it and have been impressed by it. It’s a challenging film and not the masterpiece everyone was hoping for post-“Social Network,” but its cultural legacy is noticeable at the very least in how many conversations I’ve had comparing the damn thing to both the book and the better Swedish version.
“Bridesmaids” is similar, a movie that everyone seems to like and at the very least has been talking about, even if it isn’t the runaway favorite of the year. But Universal really doesn’t have another prestige movie to back in this race, so they’re putting their full weight behind “Bridesmaids.”
That makes “Drive” and “Potter” even darker horses, and if just one of those movies squeezes in, it could mean that “The Tree of Life” and even “War Horse” are out in a field without a set number of nominees.
Best Actor
- George Clooney – The Descendants
- Jean Dujardin – The Artist
- Brad Pitt – Moneyball
- Michael Fassbender – Shame
- Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
- Dark Horses: Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Solder Spy)
This is easily the most interesting acting category across the board. George Clooney, Jean Dujardin and Brad Pitt all give wonderful performances in the frontrunners for the Best Picture race. They’re locks.
Michael Fassbender was long considered the dark horse here. His movie “Shame” is as dark and painful as they come, but voters have realized how marvelously brave his work is.
Who should really be worried is Leonardo DiCaprio. “J. Edgar” took a nosedive in the minds of voters when it turned out to be below average, and his hair, makeup and accent performance is no longer cutting it.
As a dark horse, Michael Shannon could get the nod for his little seen indie “Take Shelter,” something that won’t get any other attention Oscar night.
1/21 Update: Suddenly really no one wants to nominate Leo. And they are scraping the bottom of the barrel for nominees. Ryan Gosling sadly hasn’t gotten into the conversation, but Demian Bichir of “A Better Life” is feeling stronger after nods for Screen Actors Guild and the Independent Spirits.
Best Actress
- Viola Davis – The Help
- Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
- Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
- Charlize Theron – Young Adult
- Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
- Dark Horses: Rooney Mara (The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)
It’s a shame all the great female performances of the year are in movies that are thin soup in comparison.
Regardless, the Academy can’t ignore Meryl Streep and Michelle Williams for doing perfect impersonations of massive public figures like Margaret Thatcher and Marilyn Monroe.
Viola Davis is also a shoo-in for being the most memorable and genuine part of “The Help.”
I still don’t know much about Albert Nobbs, but Glenn Close doubles as a man in this movie. She’s in.
Charlize Theron was once considered a solid contender, but her cynical, unlikable performance has a lot of competition from dark horses whose films were simply better received in the eyes of the public.
1/21 Update: No one remembers “Young Adult.” With “Dragon Tattoo” feeling stronger, so is Rooney Mara, but suddenly Tilda Swinton got some brief face time at the Golden Globes and maybe a few more Oscar voters have actually seen “We Need to Talk About Kevin” to give her a nomination.
Best Supporting Actor
- Albert Brooks – Drive
- Christopher Plummer – Beginners
- Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
- Patton Oswalt – Young Adult
- Ben Kingsley – Hugo
- Dark Horses: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Corey Stoll (Midnight in Paris), Robert Forster (The Descendants), Andy Serkis (The Rise of the Planet of the Apes), Alan Rickman (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2)
The supporting categories are still a toss-up as far as I’m concerned. Albert Brooks, Christopher Plummer and Kenneth Branagh have all swept enough critic awards to be sure fire nominees, but just about anyone can take the last two spots.
I’m predicting Patton Oswalt and Ben Kingsley, Oswalt because he’s a popular comedian and the most relatable person in “Young Adult,” and Kingsley because he portrays a movie legend in “Hugo.”
I also can’t get behind Jonah Hill being nominated for an Oscar for one second. It would be nice to see Ernest Hemingway (Corey Stoll) and Professor Snape (Alan Rickman) get nominated though.
1/21 Update: Nick Nolte now seems to be a lock. I promise I’ll get around to watching “Warrior,” but it hasn’t happened yet. Jonah Hill also seems to be much more certain, and yet this field is as wide open as ever.
Best Supporting Actress
- Berenice Bejo – The Artist
- Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
- Octavia Spencer – The Help
- Jessica Chastain – The Help
- Vanessa Redgrave – Coriolanus
- Dark Horses: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Jessica Chastain (Tree of Life)
Talk about a weak category. Berenice Bejo, Shailene Woodley and Octavia Spencer aren’t exactly Earth shattering in their films, but their movies are big-ticket items.
Vanessa Redgrave is this year’s booming veteran performance in of all things a Shakespearean drama, “Coriolanus.”
The last spot could go to one of two films for the same person. Jessica Chastain was nowhere a year ago, but now she’s everywhere, and even she doesn’t know whether to stand behind her work in “The Help,” “The Tree of Life” or “Take Shelter.”
There’s also a big push to get a nomination for Melissa McCarthy for “Bridesmaids.” Something about diarrhea coming out like lava that’s considered Oscar worthy.
1/21 Update: You want a front runner? Octavia. She won the Globe and the Critics’ Choice.
Best Director
- Michel Hazanivicius – The Artist
- Alexander Payne – The Descendants
- Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
- Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive
- Martin Scorsese – Hugo
- Dark Horses: Steven Spielberg (War Horse), Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)
It isn’t often that four of the contenders for Best Director could also be considered some of the best of all time. Terrence Malick, Steven Spielberg, Martin Scorsese and Woody Allen are all in the hunt.
In fact, Michel Hazanvicius’s ode to silent cinema is much more eye popping to the Academy. He and Alexander Payne are locks.
I’m predicting the dark horse Malick because no film this year screamed a more personal directorial vision than “The Tree of Life.”
I’m also throwing a much needed bone to “Drive” director Nicolas Winding Refn. He won the Cannes directing award months ago, but the critics are helping his fight now. His stylization may prove noticeable.
That made choosing between Marty, Spielberg and Woody super difficult. As of just days ago, Spielberg was left out of the Directors Guild Nominees, with the out-of-nowhere contender David Fincher taking his place for “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” The DGA winner is almost always a good indicator of who will win the actual award, so Spielberg’s chances now feel somewhat impaired.
1/21 Update: In the past few years you’ve had to ask what the five nominees would be if this were a normal year to guess the directors. That would knock Malick and Refn out of my list and put Woody Allen and Tate Taylor (ugh.) for “The Help” in.
Best Original Screenplay
- The Artist
- Midnight in Paris
- Bridesmaids
- Young Adult
- Win Win
- Dark Horses: 50/50, Rango, The Tree of Life, Margin Call, Beginners
Aside from “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris,” the Best Original Screenplay category will favor films that will most certainly get the shaft elsewhere. Both of those titles are clever and imaginative screenplays, even if one is obviously not much of a dialogue movie.
“Bridesmaids” seems to be the obvious popular Best Picture snub choice, so it’s in here at the very least. Former winner Diablo Cody penned “Young Adult”, so I’m going to give her a nod.
And “Win Win” was this year’s most loved and lighthearted American indie. There’s the possibility that the darker “Martha Marcy May Marlene,” “Beginners” or “50/50” could give it a run for its money however.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Descendants
- Moneyball
- Hugo
- Drive
- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
- Dark Horses: War Horse, The Help, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Carnage, A Dangerous Method
This is maybe a weak, uninteresting category because few of these contenders are truly literary and dialogue based the way screenplay voters like.
“The Descendants” is likely to walk away with this, but “Moneyball’s” adaptation of a statistics driven book is certainly impressive. What’s more, last year’s winner Aaron Sorkin and “Schindler’s List” writer Steven Zallian are both Oscar favorites. Zallian even has “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” in the running, and it is a fairly faithful adaptation of a literary phenomenon.
“Hugo” is in for capturing the colorful vitality of the children’s book and “Drive” gets the snub vote. That leaves “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.” I would be the last person to call this adaptation a coherent adaptation of John le Carre’s complex spy novel, but it is a popular film. “War Horse” is unlikely to edge it out in the same way “Avatar” didn’t really deserve a screenplay nod.