With “Argo” now in tow (my 3.5 star review), the Oscar race is starting to flesh out. Only a handful of films that will be major contenders for any awards have not yet been screened at festivals or to the press, those being “Les Miserables,” “Zero Dark Thirty,” “Django Unchained,” “The Hobbit,” “Hitchcock” and “Promised Land.” The question will be if “Argo” has the legs to go all the way given its somewhat middling performance at the box office (it earned about $19 million and was #2 behind “Taken 2”). It’ll surely get a Best Picture nomination and likely more, but only time will tell.
Here then is an updated look at some of the news of the week and a slightly tweaked list of predictions.
“Flight” premieres at NYFF closing night
Robert Zemeckis’s first live action film since “Cast Away” is already being celebrated as great, complex studio filmmaking. Its strong outing practically cements Denzel Washington as a serious contender for Lead Actor and also has put John Goodman in the supporting conversation thanks to his other appearance this week in “Argo.”
Documentary Shorts Category has shortlist revealed
Eight short films have been selected as the potential five Oscar nominees from a list of 31 eligible titles. The list is as follows: (via Indiewire)
“The Education of Mohammad Hussein,” Loki Films
“Inocente,” Shine Global, Inc.
“Kings Point,” Kings Point Documentary, Inc.
“Mondays at Racine,” Cynthia Wade Productions
“Open Heart,” Urban Landscapes Inc.
“ParaÍso,” The Strangebird Company
“The Perfect Fit,” SDI Productions Ltd.
“Redemption,” Downtown Docs
“The Dark Knight Rises” in the hunt
Warner Bros. announced their For Your Consideration campaign this week, with the big surprise being the campaign for Anne Hathaway and “The Dark Knight Rises.” Hathaway’s role as Catwoman is being sold as a lead performance, which means she could find a spot in a slim field and be poised to not compete with herself in the supporting ranks for “Les Miserables.” See the whole Warner Bros. campaign.
James Gandolfini has secret part in “Zero Dark Thirty”
I’ll just leave this here. (via Entertainment Weekly)
Michael Moore comments further on controversial documentary branch
Michael Moore, never one to usually be opinionated and vocal (cough, cough), made further criticisms/explanations about his expectations regarding the new rules for nominating films in the Best Documentary category of the Oscars. He was a proponent for the new rules that make the nominating process more inclusive, but he feels certain films have taken advantage of these possibilities, leaving for a crop of films, 160 roughly, that is just too big a mountain to conquer. At the same time, he hopes to expand the number of voting members in the documentary branch for next year’s awards season. (via Indiewire)
Week 2 Oscar Predictions
Best Picture
Front Runners
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Les Miserables
Probables
Hitchcock
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
The Master
Flight
Long Shots
The Dark Knight Rises
Not Fade Away
Moonrise Kingdom
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
The Sessions
Promised Land
The Impossible
The Hobbit
Rust and Bone
Some good NYFF press for “Not Fade Away” and “Flight” makes each movie a more likely contender. I’ve also added “The Dark Knight Rises” to the list of long shots. Warner Bros. made clear in their For Your Consideration campaign that they have not forgotten about it.
Best Actor
Front Runners
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington – Flight
Probables
Anthony Hopkins – Hitchcock
Matt Damon – Promised Land
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Jean-Louis Trintignant – Amour
Long Shots
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
Jamie Foxx – Django Unchained
Jake Gyllenhaal – End of Watch
Bill Murray – Hyde Park on Hudson
Jack Black – Bernie
If Denzel is in, then who do you kick out? I’m saying Hopkins for now since no one’s seen “Hitchcock.”
Best Actress
Front Runners
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Probables
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Keira Knightley – Anna Karenina
Mary Elizabeth Winstead – Smashed
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Long Shots
Halle Berry – Cloud Atlas
Anne Hathaway – The Dark Knight Rises
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea
One movie I’ve heard a lot about in the past week is the indie “Smashed,” about a struggling marriage after the wife, Mary Elizabeth Winstead (“Scott Pilgrim vs. The World”), quits drinking, alienating her free spirited attitude she shared with her husband, played by Aaron Paul of “Breaking Bad.” There’s definitely a push for her.
Best Supporting Actor
Front Runners
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert De Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
John Goodman – Argo/Flight
Probables
Jude Law – Anna Karenina
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
William H. Macy – The Sessions
Irrfan Kahn – Life of Pi
Jim Broadbent – Cloud Atlas
Long Shots
James Gandolfini – Zero Dark Thirty
Aaron Paul – Smashed
Omar Sy – The Intouchables
Dwight Henry – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained
Russell Crowe – Les Miserables
Matthew McConnaughey – Magic Mike
Michael Caine – The Dark Knight Rises
Michael Fassbender – Prometheus
I still can’t say what John Goodman will be nominated for, but he’s probably one of the most likeable, popular actors right now without one. Don’t forget he’s also in “Trouble With the Curve.” This is his year. I’m also taking a shot in the dark on Gandolfini. No one knows how big really anyone’s part will be yet.
Best Supporting Actress
Front Runners
Amy Adams – The Master
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Sally Field – Lincoln
Probables
Jackie Weaver – Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Long Shots
Frances McDormand – Promised Land
Judi Dench – Skyfall
No changes here.
Directing
Front Runners
Ben Affleck – Argo
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Probables
Robert Zemeckis – Flight
Paul Thomas Anderson – The Master
Michael Haneke – Amour
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Wes Anderson – Moonrise Kingdom
Benh Zeitlin – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Gus Van Sant – Promised Land
Long Shots
David Chase – Not Fade Away
Dustin Hoffman – Quartet
Ben Lewin – The Sessions
Joe Wright – Anna Karenina
Just a few little shake-ups.