2013 Oscars: Final Predictions

I just finished watching a Katie Couric special edition of “20/20” in which they talked about everything that makes the Oscars iconic, but none of the reasons why I actually care about the awards. Hearing about Bjork’s swan dress is cute, but I’m in this for the movies.

Every year I come up with elaborate reasons why this year’s winner will mean something. For “The Artist” it was that even a silent, foreign, black and white comedy could win Best Picture and make people interested in a great form of movie history for just a little while. For “The King’s Speech” it was that the love for Old Hollywood was alive and well, even if I was pulling for the generational landmark that would’ve been a victory for “The Social Network.” And for “The Hurt Locker,” it signified a turning point in our view of the campaign in the Middle East, as well as a long denied achievement for women everywhere, which really is something to cheer about.

And yet just as I study every nominee and understand every nuance of the race, all of that is forgotten as quickly as the next year, and the only things that are left are the great movies themselves.

I think this year’s Oscars matter because above all, they will honor a lot of great movies, more than in most years. I may not think “Argo” is the best movie of the year, nor is my pick even nominated, but I think that whatever wins, it will be a victory for quality (except for “Les Miz” obviously).

Here then are my final predictions for what will take home gold on Oscar night. This year has been so exciting, so tumultuous, so long and so controversial that if I have to make one correct prediction, it’s that I will be wrong… possibly a lot.

Argo Ben Affleck

Best Picture

  • Argo
  • Lincoln
  • Silver Linings Playbook
  • Life of Pi
  • Django Unchained
  • Zero Dark Thirty
  • Amour
  • Les Miserables
  • Beasts of the Southern Wild

I don’t think I ever wanted to admit that there was going to be a sure fire winner for Best Picture, and I don’t think I ever could. The “Argo” freight train of success is still relatively fresh news. A lot has happened since it premiered at Telluride back in September, and there was a time just six weeks ago when nominations were announced that it looked to be a dead and gone afterthought. Now it has swept every major guild prize and award in sight, and it is poised to make history no matter what happens. All the comparisons that have been made to explain its victory in the context of past winners will be erased because its victory (or loss) will be completely unprecedented. Pundits will now point to it as the example.

If it wins, it will be because it is a great film, but also because it is an agreeable film that was able to weather the storm of controversy and barrier to entry better than any other.

“Lincoln” hardly seems formidable, and in fact “Life of Pi” or “Silver Linings Playbook” look even stronger with more recent wins in the bag, but it remains an even greater film in my view and is still, on paper, the predictable Oscar winner.

Brian’s Pick: Argo

Dark Horse: Lincoln, followed by Silver Linings Playbook, then Life of Pi

Should Win: Life of Pi Continue reading “2013 Oscars: Final Predictions”

Off the Red Carpet: 2 Weeks till Oscars

Hopefully this is the last week that the Oscar race sees a real lull, because ballots are sent to voters this week, so maybe there will be something to talk about then.

“Argo” wins DGA

I wrote in a column just yesterday how ridiculous the discussion over “Argo” is getting, but there’s no denying that the movie looks mighty strong. On Saturday it won the coveted Directors Guild prize, an award that usually predicts the Best Director Oscar winner and consequently Best Picture. Obviously though, Ben Affleck is without a nomination on Oscar night, so I think the uncertainty factor for what will finally happen is more uncertain than most Oscar pundits care to admit. One theory is that the super amount of praise for “Argo” will now turn into backlash as the ballots go out.

But if you’re looking for an even more likely frontrunner, check out “Searching for Sugar Man,” which won the DGA prize for director Malik Bendjelloul. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: 2 Weeks till Oscars”

Off the Red Carpet: Weeks of 10/24 – 11/7

I took a week off last week, despite there being at least one piece of gigantic movie news, perhaps not Oscar relevant, but enough to make nerds on Twitter (myself included) flip out for better or worse.

But with the election now firmly behind us, I can focus on a race with just one president running (“Lincoln”).

President Obama defeats Mitt Romney in Presidential Election

Hey! Guess what? Now funding for “Sesame Street” and PBS won’t be cut and young kids will still like the movies and art for future generations!

Disney buys Lucasfilm for $4 billion, plans to make “Star Wars Episode VII”

“Star Wars” is now coming back in 2015, and I couldn’t be more disappointed. Even if “Star Wars” has become something of a joke since the prequels and having the “Star Wars” name on your product in fact makes it worse, the “Star Wars” series, with George Lucas’s muddy fingers and all, had become bad but never boring.

For Disney, who also owns Marvel, to plan to release “Star Wars VII” in the same year as “The Avengers 2,” is to make it into another tentpole blockbuster and popcorn movie that will be instantly forgotten as soon as people walk out of the theater.

Rumors are now spilling in that Matthew Vaughn (“Kick-Ass,” “X-Men: First Class”) is in talks to direct, Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fischer are all interested in reprising their roles, and George Lucas is supposed to still be a “consultant,” whatever that means. These are telltale signs that this is not going to be an interesting film that takes the franchise in a new direction but one that is sheer fanboy baiting. (via Collider)

21 films eligible for Best Animated Feature

The number of animated movies considered eligible each year for the Best Animated Feature Oscar dictates the number of nominees the category will have, three or five, and five will definitely be the winning number this year based on 21 films meeting the Academy’s requirements. This says to me that Disney could very well have three potential nominees this year with “Brave,” “Wreck-It Ralph” and “Frankenweenie.” Expect buzz for “Rise of the Guardians” and one of the Gkids (“The Secret of Kells,” “Chico and Rita”) distributed entries. (Full list via In Contention)

Box office numbers bode well for “Wreck-It Ralph,” “Flight,” “Argo”

In a big surprise, Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph” trounced the weekly competition by raking in nearly $50 million on its opening weekend, double that of Robert Zemeckis’s “Flight,” a number that’s really nothing to scoff at. “Argo” also performed well in its third week by making $10 million, proving that this is a movie generating money by word of mouth that has the legs to go all the way to a Best Picture prize. Doing less well was “Cloud Atlas,” which in two weeks has only brought in $18 million of its over $100 million budget. (via Box Office Mojo)

“Hitchcock” premieres at AFI Film Fest

Film buffs are eagerly awaiting the movie “Hitchcock,” for obvious reasons, and early reviews of the movie say that although Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren provide their characters with range and depth, first time feature director Sacha Gervasi’s film is a lightweight entry that feels clunky at times and goes against the grain of what people actually know about Hitch. They also now have HBO’s “The Girl” to compare it against, which likewise received poor reviews by painting Hitchcock as little more than a peeping tom.

European Film Awards and British Independent Film Awards announce nominees

“Amour,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “The Intouchables,” and “The Imposter” are all among the nominees in two of Europe’s smaller award races, the European Film Awards and the British Independent Film Awards. The former nominated films that won’t get an American distribution this year and the latter nominated films that got American distribution last year. See the full lists here and here. (via In Contention)

Week 4 Predictions Chart

This week I’m adding in some preliminary Screenplay predictions since the rest of the field is unchanged in my mind.

Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: Weeks of 10/24 – 11/7”

Video games in movies need a reboot

There’s a nerdy loner sitting in the dark explaining how he’s “really into computers.” We watch him manhandle a control, pressing a million buttons at once in no specific way, and the sound effects we hear are random bleeps and bloops before some deep, ominous voice says “Game Over.”

This is how Hollywood sees the average video gamer.

Video games as they are depicted in the movies are horribly dated representations based on clichés from the ‘80s that in no way resemble the way modern video games look and feel. In the 30 years since games started becoming a subject of movies, most games have evolved to a point where they could and should be called art. The media however still views them as a joke.

Suffice it to say, a movie like Disney’s “Wreck-It Ralph” will not convince many adults that games are for people other than kids. It’s a movie that attracted a lot of attention in the gaming community by essentially being “Toy Story” for video games and for being jam-packed with Easter Egg references to cult favorites. But it’s a sugar coated story about being yourself that has more scenes of animated movie chaos than simulated levels that would provide depth and understanding about games. Continue reading “Video games in movies need a reboot”

Wreck-It Ralph

The plight of Wreck-It Ralph was best said by Jessica Rabbit. “I’m not bad. I’m just drawn that way.”

“Wreck-It Ralph” is a movie with a killer premise about an 8-bit arcade game villain who wants to be the good guy for once. It’s a cute film with a lot of heart that kids will gobble up, but it doesn’t represent video games in the way I would’ve hoped.

Very much like “Toy Story,” when the arcade closes, all the characters leave their in-game roles and live out lives of their own. They can even leave their own game and interact with others in a central train station hub, better known to us humans as a power strip.

Poor Ralph (John C. Reiley) has been the bad guy in his “Donkey Kong” inspired game for 30 years, and in all that time the townspeople have heaped praise on the game’s hero, Fix-It Felix (Jack McBrayer), and made him live in a garbage dump. In the film’s most clever scene, Ralph seeks help at an AA meeting for video game villains, and Bowser, Blinkie, Zangeef, Dr. Eggman and a stray zombie get him to realize that being a bad guy doesn’t mean you’re a “bad guy.”

But in an effort to win some pride, Ralph leaves his game and first joins a violent and realistic First Person Shooter and then a “Mario Kart” racer, where he helps a glitchy character named Vanellope (Sarah Silverman) win her own in-game acceptance.

“Wreck-It Ralph” is at its best when it’s riffing on games. The references function mostly as Easter Eggs for a nerdy audience brought up on Playstation, but the fun nuances are everywhere in the film’s first half hour, from a PSA featuring Sonic the Hedgehog to a race on the infamous Rainbow Road. Even the animation reflects the way certain game characters move or how background elements can be pixelated and under-developed.

For a movie that’s been given so much care, it’s a shame to see it turn into a vehicle for potty humor and lame puns about candy. The film’s big chases and action sequences feel less like actual levels in a game and more like bland movie set pieces. There’s a gag that involves Laffy Taffys and Fix-It Felix hitting himself in the face with a hammer that feels very low-brow.

And yet “Wreck-It Ralph” is sugary sweet. The characters are perky and optimistic, and Ralph is never anything but loveable. He just gets a bad rap.

I read on Twitter that this was the year that Disney made a Pixar movie and Pixar made a Disney movie (“Brave”), but “Wreck-It Ralph” is not quite “Toy Story.” It needs to level up if it wants to beat that.

3 stars