Off the Red Carpet: 3 Weeks till Oscars

Sorry this is a bit late, but consider it an opportunity for yet another Oscar blogger to wonder whether “Argo” is actually “Apollo 13” or “Driving Miss Daisy.”

Seriously, there’s been a lot of news lately, but people have run out of things to discuss. The entire season has gone so long without an actual frontrunner that now Oscar bloggers are practically inventing reasons to call one. More on that right now.

Ben Affleck SAG
Ben Affleck accepting his SAG award Sunday night. Image courtesy businessinsider.com

“Argo” wins SAG and PGA

Over the past weekend, “Argo” made a surprise sweep by first winning Best Film from the Producers Guild and then Best Ensemble from the Screen Actors Guild. Keep in mind, this is a movie that only a few weeks ago looked weak by losing a nomination for Ben Affleck for Best Director. Now it’s beaten “Lincoln” in two places where it should’ve had the edge, the PGA because it’s the bigger box office success and the SAG because if “Lincoln” is anything, it’s an actors’ movie, and if “Argo” is anything, it’s not that.

So the narrative that has grown out of this is that “Argo” is modeling the trajectory of “Apollo 13,” the last movie to sweep the PGA, SAG and DGA without having a Best Director nominee in tow. Except I don’t think the comparison makes a whole lot of sense. “Apollo 13” didn’t win the Golden Globe (not that that matters), there were only five Best Picture nominees, not nine, “Lincoln” is hardly “Braveheart,” “Braveheart” won in part because it was one of the first movie to send out screeners to Academy members, and “Argo” hasn’t won the DGA yet anyway. That happens this weekend, so we’ll see.

“Argo” isn’t quite “Driving Miss Daisy” either, the last (and one of three films) to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination. “Argo” is a studio genre thriller that celebrates the movies, not a stuffy period drama crowd pleaser that plays on white guilt and stars Dan Ackroyd.

Frankly, I think anyone calling this race for anyone is grossly exaggerating. With such a solid crop of movies, each of them with their own powerful narrative that could drive a victory, and many of them being brought up again in conversation by critics and the public, almost any movie has SOME conceivable chance of winning. For my money, this is still a four horse race, maybe five. “Argo” and “Lincoln” are certainly safer horses to bet on, but none of the others have packed up and gone home. Continue reading “Off the Red Carpet: 3 Weeks till Oscars”