August: Osage County

Meryl Streep is excellent in the broadest, most vile performance in her career.

Meryl Streep has gone broader in her acting as her career has continued to explode. Between a vicious nun, Julia Child, a scathing magazine editor and Margaret Thatcher, her roles as an ordinary everywoman from “Manhattan” and “Kramer vs. Kramer” have somewhat faded in memory.

With a role like Violet Weston, Streep is playing the broadest and vilest in her career. The character from Tracy Letts’s play “August: Osage County”, unseen by me, is infamous, and people have been quick to label Streep as merely scene-chewing. Her challenge as an actress is to rise above the bigness and vices of her character, to show a wounded, sympathetic and tragic figure underneath all the bile.

When we first meet her in “August: Osage County,” she’s worn, frumpy and unrecognizable, sporting the thin hairdo she had in the concentration camp in “Sophie’s Choice,” this time ravaged by chemo therapy. But with her big black wig on or not, she shows no vulnerability in taking swipes at her family while being slightly endearing in the process. Continue reading “August: Osage County”

2014 Oscar Predictions Round 3

“Her” and “American Hustle” give “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” a run for their money.

Checking Twitter in the past few weeks has been exhausting. It seems as though every hour there’s a new Top 10 list or set of nominations from a guild or critics group being handed out.

It’s not enough to merely list the best movies of the year but to give the best cast, score, soundtrack, performances, breakout performances, breakout directors, best movie posters, most underrated, most under the radar, best documentaries, best animated films, best foreign films and so on.

Would you know that each needs to be analyzed and has an impact on this thing we call the Oscar race? Critics awards in New York and L.A. (as dictated by people who live in New York and L.A.) hold a lot of influence, while others get laughed out of the room because they’re horrible barometers for the actual Oscar winner, as evidenced by statistics and numbers that often don’t hold up to a science anyway (ask Nate Silver).

What’s worse is when many of these Oscar pundits are shocked (SHOCKED) that a given critics’ group went the way it did. It’s as though every critics group is not just voting for the things they liked but are scrutinizing the “message” that a given selection will send. “Ooh, well we can’t choose ‘Gravity’ because that’ll make us look populist, but if we choose ‘American Hustle’ it’ll look like we were goaded by the most recent press screening, so we better choose ‘Her’ so that we keep our hip, indie cred.” How dare they not go for “12 Years a Slave” like everyone was sure they must?

The point is, all of these intangible drops in the pond do color the race as a whole. If we can pick up on those trends perhaps we can better predict. Suddenly it seems as though we have at least a four-horse race between “Gravity,” “American Hustle,” “12 Years a Slave” and “Her,” as all have picked up some major victories in the past few weeks. At the same time, certain contenders like Octavia Spencer, Tom Hanks or Paul Greengrass seem conspicuously absent from major nominations while people like Joaquin Phoenix, Will Forte and those behind “Before Midnight” look a lot less hopeless.

This remains anyone’s race, but somehow this wide open field feels a lot more treacherous.

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Her

Best Picture

  1. Gravity*
  2. American Hustle
  3. 12 Years a Slave*
  4. Her*
  5. Captain Phillips*
  6. Saving Mr. Banks*
  7. Inside Llewyn Davis*
  8. Nebraska*
  9. The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Dallas Buyers Club*
  • Fruitvale Station*
  • Before Midnight*
  • Rush*
  • All is Lost*
  • Blue Jasmine*
  • August: Osage County*
  • The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

If you want to make this easy, look at the American Film Institute’s unranked Top 10 list for the year, and that might be your Best Picture slate right there. Each of the movies selected has had well-rounded praise. “Gravity” is getting the populist vote, “American Hustle” scored with the New York film critics, “Her” with the Los Angeles critics and the National Board of Review, while “12 Years a Slave” has scored with everyone else.

As for the rest, the remaining films are using their winter season releases to drum up steam where those like “The Butler”, “Before Midnight” and “All is Lost” have to fight their way back into a crowded room. And those movies are getting no help from places like the Golden Globes. “The Butler” picked up a goose egg of nominations. But they did manage to shove “Rush” back into the hunt.

But Steve Pond has the reason above all why the cutoff may be at “The Wolf of Wall Street”: math. The Academy has yet to nominate 10 films under the new flexible rules, and in past years when the ballots were rerun, the magic number resulted in everywhere from five to nine movies, but never 10. Things could change, but as he explains, even the sheer numerical breakdown is against such an outcome. Continue reading “2014 Oscar Predictions Round 3”

Oscar Predictions 2014 – Round 1

“12 Years a Slave” and “Gravity” weigh heavily in an Oscar season loaded with buzz and hyperbole.

Last year I got absolutely embroiled in the Oscar race. Such is the case when you have inordinate amounts of time on your hands. I wrote weekly round up columns of all the news and shake-ups in the race, and it was a blast.

This year, contenders have come and gone, with some setting the world on fire (“Gravity”, “12 Years a Slave”), some fizzling out fast (“The Fifth Estate”, “The Counselor”) and others getting pushed to 2014 and out of the race all together (“The Monuments Men”, “Foxcatcher”).

But whereas last year was remarkably unpredictable, this year’s race started early and shows little sign of relenting. The media quickly took over and has aimed to influence the outcome in anyway they can.

Why am I even bothering then to enter my voice into the fray? I chimed in with a controversial piece on why “Gravity” won’t win Best Picture just the other day, and I may yet change my mind, but I was originally going to resume my column and do so as a video.

Now to do so seems futile, and if I’m going to make picks at all, I’d like for them to add something to the conversation. I’d like for them to be pieces that involve me actually having seen the movies in question and not just responding to the media buzz. Hopefully I can call bullshit when need be too.

The smarter pundits out there do no different, and they’ve already been more than critical of the hyperbole that in late October has already made this race exhausting.

I’ll at least make clear now these articles will be less frequent. I can’t promise that they’ll be vastly different than what you might read anywhere else, but they’ll serve as sanity checks in an awards circuit run wild.

 

* Designates a movie I’ve seen

Bulleted entries are Dark Horse candidates ranked in likelihood of getting in

Best Supporting Actor

  1. Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
  2. Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave*
  3. Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
  4. Josh Brolin – Labor Day
  5. Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
  • Daniel Bruhl – Rush*
  • Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips*
  • Jake Gyllenhaal – Prisoners*
  • John Goodman – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • David Oyelowo – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Andrew Dice Clay – Blue Jasmine*
  • Matthew McConaughey – Mud*
  • Geoffrey Rush – The Book Thief
  • James Franco – Spring Breakers*
  • James Gandolfini – Enough Said

So the first thing you’re wondering is, why is James Franco so low? After having just revisited “Spring Breakers,” Franco’s reptilian, corn-rowed, drug addled performance is something special. It’s dark and twisted but as much vulnerable and affecting as it is iconic and outrageous. Distributor A24 is taking his campaign somewhat seriously, as they’ve put out two “Consider This Shit” ads. Sadly, honoring a performance like that is simply not how the Academy works.

But to look at the field more practically, Tom Hanks is being argued by some as capable of winning a third Oscar. He seems to also be a lock for Lead Actor, but this is the one where he puts on his classic charm and shows why he’s a real movie star, but a likable one too. Having seen Michael Fassbender’s work in “12 Years a Slave,” it’s monumental. Physical, animalistic, and yet also sickly compassionate and reserved. He won’t be ignored like he was for Steve McQueen’s last film “Shame.” Whether or not the Academy will recognize another villainous turn in this role is another question. Jared Leto has earned a lot of buzz for his cross dressing role in “Dallas Buyers Club,” so he seems likely and could steal a win if the movie is liked enough.

More pundits however are arguing for Daniel Bruhl in “Rush.” To me the performance strikes me as mostly one-dimensional, a calculated job for which Bruhl may very quickly be typecast. Barkhad Abdi seems most likely to be the most worthy snub from a not quite stacked bunch, but a good group of nominees when I think how much I’d love to see Matthew McConaughey, Andrew Dice Clay, John Goodman or Jake Gyllenhaal all break into the mix.

Lupita Nyong'O 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actress

  1. Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  2. Octavia Spencer – Fruitvale Station*
  3. Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave*
  4. June Squibb – Nebraska*
  5. Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
  • Julia Roberts – August: Osage County*
  • Margo Martindale – August: Osage County*
  • Sarah Paulson – 12 Years a Slave*
  • Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine*
  • Amy Adams – Her
  • Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
  • Naomie Harris – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Scarlett Johansson – Her

The supporting actress category is especially strong this year, and it’s amazing to me to see three African American actresses as near locks for this category. Oprah has star power on her side for this nomination, but she’s more than serviceable in “The Butler.” It’s a nuanced performance that never goes overboard. Octavia Spencer may be the only nomination “Fruitvale Station” gets this year. June Squibb is outrageous in “Nebraska,” and she has more than a few show-stopping moments that could win her an Oscar. But my money is on Lupita Nyong’o, a remarkably brave performance among many in “12 Years a Slave,” but she holds her own against titans of cinema.

The reason however I’ve included Jennifer Lawrence in my fifth spot is because I am beyond confused about “August: Osage County’s” role in this race. It was originally rumored that Meryl Streep might be campaigned for Supporting Actress, as the movie is really Julia Roberts’ story. Now where Julia will be campaigned seems uncertain. It might mean bad news for Margo Martindale splitting the vote and coming up short.

Also an interesting footnote is Scarlett Johansson’s bid for “Her.” Keep in mind that Johansson does only voice work for the role, and although it’s a long shot, a nomination would be the first time voice acting alone managed to land an Oscar nod. Also, go Sally Hawkins! Easily the most underrated part of “Blue Jasmine.”

Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine

Best Actress

  1. Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine*
  2. Sandra Bullock – Gravity*
  3. Meryl Streep – August: Osage County*
  4. Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
  5. Judi Dench – Philomena*
  • Kate Winslet – Labor Day
  • Amy Adams – American Hustle
  • Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue is the Warmest Color
  • Julie Delpy – Before Midnight*
  • Berenice Bejo – The Past

Perhaps more than any race, Best Actress is especially tight. Months ago this seemed to be Blanchett’s Oscar to lose. Now all five candidates stand to be former winners, with Kate Winslet or Judi Dench acting as the fifth spot contenders, and anyone could give them a run for their money. Blanchett, with the help of Woody Allen and his reputation for championing women to Oscar wins, delivers a convincingly dignified nervous breakdown. Sandra Bullock shows depth and naturalism under the worst of acting conditions. And Streep chews as much scenery as you may have imagined. Streep’s spitfire performance is a thousand times better than her work in “The Iron Lady,” one that has as much pathos and depth as it does firecrackers, so I’m finding it hard to say she couldn’t win a FOURTH Oscar.

If there’s a reason I don’t like Dench in the fifth spot, it’s because Philomena Lee is an awkward character that Dench doing what she does best doesn’t fully earn. Just how big is Amy Adams’s role in “American Hustle” is a looming question mark, but on the outskirts are Exarchopoulos, coming off a big controversy with her director and film, and Delpy, who needs to strike while the iron is hot if she is to convince the Academy that her Celine is a character 18 years in the making.

Robert Redford All Is Lost

Best Actor

  1. Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave*
  2. Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips*
  3. Robert Redford – All is Lost
  4. Bruce Dern – Nebraska*
  5. Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyer’s Club
  • Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Christian Bale – American Hustle
  • Forest Whitaker – Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  • Joaquin Phoenix – Her
  • Idris Elba – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
  • Michael B. Jordan – Fruitvale Station*

Best Actor always seems to be a packed race, so it smacks of hyperbole to say that this year is more or less so than in years past. But what is unique about this year is that given this deep field in which more than a few worthy candidates will be left out, there does not seem to be a notable frontrunner.

Ejiofor will earn his spot because his movie more than anything validates it. It’s a magnificently brave performance with any number of stunning displays of talent to point to as evidence. Hanks, Redford, Dern and McConaughey however have more of the buzz. While McConaughey’s time is due, Hanks, Dern and Redford have all used their performances as something of comebacks, proof to the Academy and the world that they are deserving of the titles of some of America’s great actors.

And yet who is the most vulnerable in such a category when there are so many other possibilities? Hanks could be out if he’s the front-runner for Supporting. Dern may be too modest and simple in Alexander Payne’s lightweight (but brilliant) film. And it may NOT be McConaughey’s time. Maybe it’s Leo’s time, or Joaquin Phoenix’s time, who shows a sentimental side in “Her” the Academy didn’t know he had. Oscar Isaac is as deserving as all these actors, but his deeply lived in, realistic performance is made to feel unlikeable, not in the juicy, good way, and it may hurt him.

American Hustle

Best Director

  1. Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave*
  2. Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity*
  3. Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips*
  4. David O. Russell – American Hustle
  5. Joel and Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis*
  • Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Spike Jonze – Her
  • Alexander Payne – Nebraska*
  • J.C. Chandor – All is Lost
  • John Lee Hancock – Saving Mr. Banks
  • Denis Villeneuve – Prisoners*

Best Director, as evidenced by every year except last one, is a good barometer for the Best Picture front runners and vice versa. So it seems as though McQueen and Cuaron are sure-fire locks. Not only are their films magnificent, there’s no question that their vision is integral to their success.

Greengrass helms the next big frontrunner, and this movie is directly up his alley. “Saving Mr. Banks” is the fourth biggest contender, but John Lee Hancock will not be the face or name people remember after seeing that film.

So that leaves O. Russell to clean up a “third time’s a charm” nomination, and the fifth will be a surprise. Scorsese has been snubbed here before, but Chandor and Villeneuve could be compelling dark horses if their movies don’t make the final Best Picture cut.

Gravity

Best Picture

  1. Gravity*
  2. 12 Years a Slave*
  3. Captain Phillips*
  4. Saving Mr. Banks
  5. American Hustle
  6. August: Osage County*
  7. Lee Daniels’ The Butler*
  8. The Wolf of Wall Street
  9. Inside Llewyn Davis*
  10. 10. Rush*
  • Nebraska*
  • All is Lost
  • Blue Jasmine*
  • Before Midnight*
  • Her
  • Dallas Buyers Club

Whew. That’s quite a field. I can speak with certainty to the top three at the very least. In fact, this is a two, if not one horse race as far as many are concerned.

“Saving Mr. Banks” is currently very strong after its very first premiere, so it seems next likely. “American Hustle” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” will have a lot of hype to live up to, and if they fail, then this could be a very different field. Otherwise, they seem to be confident contenders. “August: Osage County” will soon look very strong, and “The Butler” is looking increasingly weak, but each have big casts and Academy friendly ambitions, and it’d be tough to bet against them too.

What’s left are two spots, one I’ve reserved for the “indie” spot and the other for the “populist, sports movie” spot. Unfortunately there’s only one film that meets the latter criteria, and that’s the mediocre “Rush.” In the other category, just about a half dozen things could fill that single void, and currently “All is Lost” looks the strongest. My money will be on “Inside Llewyn Davis” to nab that indie spot, but it will depend on which movies critics and guilds come back for at the end of the year and how some of these movies perform with the public.

Chicago International Film Festival Preview 2013

A preview of 35 films showing at the 49th Chicago International Film Festival (CIFF) between October 10-24

Toronto, Sundance, New York and now Telluride get all the love.

Those North American festivals have been covered to death in this Oscar season that’s come (and been declared finished) all too early, and the focus moves so fast that the media neglects to appeal to the millions in the Midwest and elsewhere who never get to see those buzzy movies with that tiny fraction of the film loving community.

But I call Chicago home, and so do thousands of other film lovers. Our Chicago International Film Festival is in its 49th year, and although Harvey Weinstein didn’t think to premiere his awards bait movies here, we get a diverse line-up of films and crave guidance, recommendations and coverage just like anyone else.

This year’s lineup, which runs October 10-24, is now available for sale to the general public and can be viewed in full here, seems especially strong, and my lineup is fairly stacked with a handful of near schedule conflicts. So if you’ve got a Festival Pass, here’s a little who’s who of 35 of this year’s CIFF movies.

*Films marked with an asterisk represent films on my personal schedule Continue reading “Chicago International Film Festival Preview 2013”