2014 Oscars: The Most Popular (and Likely) Upsets

We’ve made all the predictions, but what would be real surprise this Oscar Sunday? Here are some likely upsets.

I’ve made my Oscar picks, and hopefully so have you, but anyone who has ever done this before knows that Oscar night ends up with pitiful looking ballots and people shouting at the TV (how in the world did that win?). So it actually makes sense to bet against the house in some occasions  and picking with your heart rather than your head is always allowed. So here are some last minute Oscar upsets to make to your ballot that a strong minority would both love to see happen and actually might.

Leonardo DiCaprio over Matthew McConaughey

People love Matthew McConaughey, but as I alluded to in this gallery, people really love Leonardo DiCaprio. A win for McConaughey is seen as justified, but only to commemorate a hot streak; it’s not something that’s obscenely long overdue as though an Oscar was the embodiment of Leo’s kids in “Inception” and he’ll never ever get to see their faces unless he’s caught in his own perpetual ambiguous dream world existence. 

Leo will win if the Academy convinces itself that somehow Leo gave the biggest, most physical and grueling performance of the year and his career by flailing like a fish out of water… a fish that has just done a ton of quaaludes and is trying to get into a Lambo. And yes, this will be seen as even more physical than McConaughey losing 40 pounds, Christian Bale gaining 40, Chiwetel Ejiofor spending 2+ hours getting whipped and hung and Bruce Dern being ancient.

Amy Adams over Cate Blanchett

I think everyone agrees that Cate Blanchett gives the best female performance of the year, but is anyone rooting for her? Is anyone rooting for anyone in this category?

Yes! It’s Amy Adams of course! She’s the only one in this bunch who doesn’t have an Oscar. But not only that, of all living actresses, only Glenn Close has more nominations and no wins than her (six to Adams’ five). Her split personality work in “American Hustle” is as complex as the movie itself, and her surprise nomination is evidence the Academy is already behind her and the movie.

Barkhad Abdi over Jared Leto

If there’s Jared Leto backlash that’s not based on whether or not a straight man should portray a transgender person in a movie, it’s that he’s won everything. Maybe the limo driver from Minnesota could win something (okay, he won the BAFTA that Leto wasn’t nominated for)? The pitch behind him winning an Oscar is basically, “Seriously, he’s really good. I mean, even Tom Hanks is only really good in “Captain Phillips” for like five minutes at the end. And are you really going to give an Oscar to the guy from 30 Seconds to Mars or for that matter, Jonah Hill?”

Happy over Let it Go

Actually, this upset might backfire, because “Let it Go” is immensely popular. The Internet might burn if Idina Menzel sang her heart out on that Oscar stage and then someone read Pharrell’s name out of that envelope. But not everyone is a child or a “Wicked” fangirl, right? Surely there are people that would like their Oscar winner to be a song they can dance to at weddings and such? And wouldn’t it be cool if Pharrell, in the course of a few months, got halfway to an EGOT? He could put all his awards in that giant hat!

The Wind Rises over Frozen

See above for what might happen if “Frozen” loses Sunday night, but a dozen years ago Hayao Miyazaki became a household name when “Spirited Away” won. This movie is not as fantasy driven and welcoming as the former, but critics and fans alike would cheer if the maybe-retired Miyazaki won for this, his beautiful swan song.

Before Midnight over 12 Years a Slave (Adapted Screenplay)

I know the Oscar campaign for “12 Years a Slave” is “It’s Time”, but I am not waiting another nine years for “Before Carson Daily Comes On” to see Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke win an Oscar for having created these lovely characters. I can’t be alone in this.

The Act of Killing over 20 Feet From Stardom

Some are arguing that if the Academy really wanted to strike a blow for importance at this Oscars, they wouldn’t just award “12 Years a Slave” but also the even more devastating “The Act of Killing,” Joshua Oppenheimer’s daring documentary profiling a man who individually committed acts of genocide in Indonesia. The expectation is that the one feel-good doc of the bunch is going to win, and that’s probably because having Darlene Love on stage is probably more TV friendly than Anwar Congo (he’s not invited, is he? that would be weird).

Arcade Fire over Steven Price

The music video of David Bowie’s “I’m Afraid of Americans” features a terrified Bowie running away from the absolutely creepy looking Trent Reznor. Whomever is watching, I correct them and point out, “That’s OSCAR WINNER Trent Reznor scaring David Bowie shitless.” Ever since then, the possibility of rock stars, from Adele to U2 or Karen O, dominating the Oscars music branch, has been an exciting trend. And there’s no bigger rockers (okay, maybe if Jonny Greenwood finally got recognized) than Will Butler and Owen Pallett, AKA part of Arcade Fire, who would make indie fans everywhere collectively fist pump in celebration. I actually think Steven Price’s “Gravity” work is pretty ground breaking for a movie with so much action, but Arcade Fire does give a convincingly futuristic and atmospheric set dressing to Spike Jonze’s masterpiece.

Roger Deakins over Emmanuel Lubezki

Roger Deakins makes Leonardo DiCaprio look like Meryl Streep. The guy has lost 10 times and is about to once more, because omigod just look at “Gravity.” “Prisoners” has this wintery brilliance behind every frame, and it just makes the whole thing that much more chilling. And what’s worse is that if you really were expecting an upset in this category, it might go to “Inside Llewyn Davis” and Bruno Delbonnel. Every Coen brothers movie has Deakins’ prints all over it no matter who is behind the camera, so in this case Deakins shot that movie in everything but name.

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