The Oscars are here, although maybe not soon enough. A report recently said that two thirds of Americans have not seen any of the Best Picture winners yet. That to me doesn’t add up for a movie like “Gravity” that made as much money as it did, but the point is that this awards season, while interesting, has just gone on too long. A New York Times article wondered if the average individual is generally apathetic to the whole institution of the Oscars.
I hope that isn’t true, but it’s starting to feel that way when the debate over “12 Years a Slave” versus “American Hustle” has long since past, when we’ve heard the story about Jonah Hill getting paid as little as SAG would allow to work for Martin Scorsese over and over again, and when even “Let it Go” parodies are getting old.
Anyway, here are my final predictions. You may find there’s more consensus and predictability than you’d think.
Best Picture
Months ago I wrote an article bluntly titled “Gravity Will NOT Win Best Picture… Probably.” It was smart of me to add on that last word, because the good news is that “Gravity,” my favorite film of the year, is still here. It is still as much of a favorite to win now as it was back when it premiered at Toronto, despite all the things I said about it technically having come true.
But in the case of “Gravity,” the nitpickers have beaten the dollars, and a more “worthy” title, one that isn’t seen as just “a ride” or a movie with a “bad script” will have to take its place. That film will be “12 Years a Slave,” as many predicted long ago that it was invincible. It has now survived with wins at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes as the one to beat, and yet its tie in the Producers Guild Awards with “Gravity” confirms just how close this race is.
“American Hustle” may not be the last minute favorite after all, and it’s a shame for David O. Russell, who would now be 0-3 in a row on his current hot streak. The third time is not the charm, it seems, but I’m betting he’ll strike again, whereas Alfonso Cuaron and Steve McQueen may never make another Oscar friendly movie. The reason I feel it can’t win, and why some are predicting it might not win anything, is, what exactly is the narrative behind this movie winning? It’s a throwback, but not quite. It’s a crowd pleaser, but not entirely. It’s madcap fun, brilliant and original, but some would argue even that’s not all true.
“Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” each have their supporters who would say otherwise about all of the above, and a win for them will mean something special.
- Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
- Could Win: Gravity
- Should Win: Gravity
Best Director
Every director has their story to demonstrate to the world that they really put in the effort behind the camera. For Cuaron, he spent years inventing technology in order to make the movie he had in mind. That story is good enough to win him an Oscar.
That’s not to say first of all that everyone else nominated doesn’t have their story, or that those are the only criteria for what makes a great director. Cuaron took his trend of using extended, unbroken shots and used it as a way of leading storytelling in new directions. He overturned studio pressures to include more saccharine and familiar tropes to the film, eliminating traditional action movie scoring in the process (also why it’ll win Best Original Score for Steven Price) and giving Emmanuel Lubezki creative freedom behind the camera.
Steve McQueen might be hard to bet against if his movie is really going to win Best Picture, but a Best Director/Picture split seems as plausible this year as it did when Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated last year.
- Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron
- Could Win: Steve McQueen
- Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actor
There was a time when Chiwetel Ejiofor, Bruce Dern or Matthew McConaughey could all be called the frontrunner, but because they split that title with Robert Redford and Tom Hanks, anyone’s victory seemed less certain. Now the pack has thinned, and despite a strong grass roots campaign to get Leonardo DiCaprio the Oscar the Internet demands, McConaughey has walked away with a string of key wins at the Globes and Screen Actors Guild that will all but anoint the “McConaissance.”
- Will Win: Matthew McConaughey
- Could Win: Leonardo DiCaprio
- Should Win: Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actress
It would be pretty despicable if Cate Blanchett did not win her second Oscar because of something Woody Allen may or may not have done years ago. She’s shockingly twisted and complex in “Blue Jasmine.” Her work is cruel, stuffy, privileged and genius. I can’t see her not winning a second Oscar.
Although if I could, it would go to Amy Adams. Adams is the only gal here without a statue to her name, and she’ll be one of the most nominated actresses in history without ever winning (five nominations), behind only Glenn Close, Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr. This may be the best work of her career, a sly dual performance that only adds to her character’s complicated sense of control. If she does win, it’ll be a sign of “Hustle’s” strength overall, and may even signal other wins down the line.
- Will Win: Cate Blanchett
- Could Win: Amy Adams
- Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor
While controversy has impacted just about every frontrunner in this race, the complaints levied at Jared Leto seem to have only made him stronger. Many have been vocal that a trans person should’ve played Rayon instead of Leto, but he’s taken to awards shows and interviews by speaking with outraged audience members and being a generally thoughtful, compassionate symbol for those who need more of a voice.
He’s also damn good in the film, and while Barkhad Abdi holds his own with Tom Hanks and Michael Fassbender gives the kind of crazed, villainous performance this category loves, Leto has won everything in site, save the BAFTA, which he was ineligible for. You really feel then for Bradley Cooper and Jonah Hill, who you can’t believe you have to call “underrated.”
- Will Win: Jared Leto
- Could Win: Barkhad Abdi
- Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o is the type of breakout actress Hollywood never gets to see, and if Jennifer Lawrence didn’t always take up so much spotlight, she might take the title of this year’s “it” girl. For years she’ll be billed in reviews as “Lupita Nyong’o of “12 Years a Slave”, but one gets the sense that she’ll be an actress with some staying power. I’d say her win at SAG is enough proof for me, but Lawrence managed to upset most recently at the BAFTAs and Globes. Her winning two Oscars and this time doing something crazier than tripping on stage is not out of the question.
- Will Win: Lupita Nyong’o
- Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence
- Should Win: Lupita Nyong’o
Original Screenplay
It’s possible that Original Screenplay, arguably the closest category behind Best Picture, could be the deciding one between whether “Her” or “American Hustle” wins anything at all. “Her” took the Globe and the WGA, but “Hustle” was revitalized with the BAFTA. Either is what you would call a “great screenplay” that the Academy would love, and both writers are more than deserving careerists. I’m going for “Hustle” because for a movie to get this much love and no wins is highly suspect (although not unprecedented).
But “Dallas Buyers Club” and “Nebraska” are compelling dark horses as well, each well-liked Best Picture contenders and “Nebraska” a movie with a chance to get recognized here where it might not elsewhere. It’s not the trendy pick “Her” would be, but it’s next in line. Two things though: Woody Allen will not bounce back from his controversy to win (he’ll have a shot again), and if “Hustle” wants Best Picture, it might need to win here.
- Will Win: American Hustle
- Could Win: Her
- Should Win: Her
Adapted Screenplay
This category is home to five interesting contenders, but somehow this is not the category Original is. John Ridley’s work for “12 Years” seems to be an easy lock, a strong example of an enormously challenging adaptation that is essential to the film’s success. It’ll also be a strong precursor for its Best Picture chances later.
The tough part is determining what else truly stands a chance. Look to WGA winner Billy Ray and “Captain Phillips” for a possible upset.
- Will Win: 12 Years a Slave
- Could Win: Captain Phillips
- Should Win: Before Midnight
One last analysis: Best Original Song
Although the music branch was not free of controversy (“Alone Yet Not Alone”) and eye rolling this year either (come on, no Lana Del Ray?), this is one hell of a group of nominees. “Let it Go” and “Happy” may be the ones dominating the charts, but all four songs are terrifically infectious, and all four nominees have been campaigning like crazy.
“Let it Go” is the far and away favorite, because just listen to it. Those big swells are what the Academy lives for. It will fit right alongside other Disney Oscar winner staples like “Under the Sea,” “Can You Feel the Love Tonight,” “Beauty and the Beast”, “Colors of the Wind” and the last Disney winner, “You’ll Be in My Heart”.
There is however a strong case to be made that “Happy” from “Despicable Me 2” could steal it away, if anything. That’s because Pharrell and his hat are cruising. The song hit #2 on the Billboard charts, and the Grammys and Daft Punk gave him exactly the boost he needed in a busy awards season. The only thing he’s missing is an Oscar.
As for “The Moon Song,” Karen O is not exactly an unknown, but this does feel like the little song that could. It’s designed to sound made up, and the Academy nominated it because it’s an integral part of that film’s story and makeup. The duet she did with Ezra Koenig of Vampire Weekend was equally lovely.
And of course U2 is U2. “Ordinary Love” sounded to me like the band phoning it in, but it has grown on me, and this is a song with a message. They’ve made that clear by appearing in all the right places recently, either in the Super Bowl, in The Hollywood Reporter or on The Tonight Show to show they’re a hard working band, even at their age, who deserves this.
But my money is on “Frozen” because this song isn’t just popular; it’s a phenomenon. When you’ve got parodies galore making knowing and loving this song essential, it just has to win. The Internet will burn if it loses.
- Will Win: “Let it Go”
- Could Win: “Happy”
- Should Win: “The Moon Song”
Other categories
Best Animated Feature
- Will Win: Frozen
- Could Win: The Wind Rises
- Should Win: The Wind Rises
Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (Could Win: The Hunt)
Documentary Feature
- Will Win: 20 Feet From Stardom
- Could Win: The Act of Killing
- Should Win: The Act of Killing
Costume Design: Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby (Could Win: Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle)
Cinematography
- Will Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
- Could Win: Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
- Should Win: Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity (but really Roger Deakins; dude’s more deserving than Leo)
Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (the man profiled in this film, at 110 years old, just passed away this week)
Film Editing: 12 Years a Slave
Makeup: Dallas Buyers Club (Could Win: Bad Grandpa)
Best Original Score: Steven Price, Gravity (Could Win: William Butler and Owen Pallett (aka Arcade Fire), Her)
Production Design: Gravity (Could Win: The Great Gatsby)
Animated Short Film: Get a Horse
Live Action Short Film: The Voorman Problem
Sound Editing: Gravity
Sound Mixing: Gravity
Visual Effects: Gravity
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